097: ⚾️ Tough tournament
A look at the performance of the number one overall seed in the NCAA baseball tournament since 1999.
Tennessee starts a three-game series for the national title against Texas A&M Saturday at the College World Series in Omaha. The Volunteers are the first number one overall seed of the tournament to advance to the National Championship series since Texas did in 2009.
The last number one overall seed to win the national title was Miami in 1999. This was the same year the NCAA baseball tournament expanded to 64 teams and introduced national seeds for its tournament format.
The NCAA baseball tournament is tough to win.
Before we dive into more of the data, if you’re a new subscriber, thank you and welcome. Last week, Steven Godfrey shared this newsletter as part of the Substack Reads digest. Godfrey is one of three co-hosts of my favorite college football media outfit - splitzoneduo.com - because they cover the whole-hog of the sport.
So, if you’re new here, welcome. This is a free publication. About once a week, I practice data visualization1 and share some thoughts about college sports. I also try to publish the code for any tables or charts here.
Some previous posts you might find interesting:
080: Odds and Quads: college basketball and the NET
075: WABStick: a tool to compare résumés of college hoops teams
070: College football games are too long: a look at recent rule changes and game length
And if you’re not yet subscribed, you can do so here.
Now, let’s dive into some college baseball data.
Number one overall seeds rarely win the National Championship
Since 1999, there have been 25 number one overall seeds in the NCAA baseball tournament. Here is a look at the tournament performance of the last 25 number one overall seeds.
A checkmark means the team advanced to a given round of the tournament and a “x” means the team was eliminated before reaching that round.
Only four of these 25 number one overall seeds have reached the title game or championship series2 (16 percent)
16 of the 25 teams advanced to the College World Series (~64 percent). A key advantage of being a number one overall seed is you get host the first two rounds (Regionals, Super Regionals).
Texas has been the number one overall seed twice, and reached the CWS finals twice as national seed, but did not win those seasons. The Longhorns won the national title in 2005 (not a top eight seed) and 2002 (5th overall seed).
Florida State has advanced to the College World Series 24 times, but the two times its been the number one overall seed, the Seminoles have failed to make it to Omaha.
Only six of the last 15 number one overall seeds come from the SEC3, yet a team from the SEC has won 10 of the last 15 NCAA baseball tournaments.
The NCAA began its national seeding process in 1999 with eight teams and it started seeding the top 16 seeds before the 2018 tournament. What is perhaps even more quirky is that since 1999, there are 12 national champions that were neither a top eight or top 16 national seed.
Six of those teams won the national title without even being a Regional host: Cal State Fullerton (2004), Oregon State (2007), Fresno State (2008), Virginia (2015), Coastal Carolina (2016), and Ole Miss (2002).
Does this mean the committee is bad at seeding the teams or something else?
While the NCAA is a glorified home owners association, the tournament committee can only screw up so much. My assumption is the margins or the bubble teams that make or miss the NCAA Tournament is a bigger issue for the committee than which team is awarded the number one seed, and if that team wins the national title.
12 of the last 25 national champions not even being a national seed is a good indication that the tournament is ripe for variance. Again, previous research suggested a best of 75 series was needed in Major League Baseball to have the better team win.
And this is college baseball. Often times in amateur sports, you’re waiting for one of the teams to beat themselves or make mistakes. It’s sort of like walking in a run with the bases loaded.
Take North Carolina. The Heels were the number four national seed in the 2024 Tournament and its season ended in Omaha with a negative run differential over nine NCAA Tournament games. The same team won 22 of 30 regular season games in the ACC with a +95 run differential, a full 46 runs better than the next best team in run differential.
There is a reason teams play 162 games during the regular season. Baseball is a tricky sport. Streaks happen. The ball will find you. It’s a tough tournament to win.
Aside from the number one overall seed storyline, the College World Series Finals will deliver a first-time champion. Tennessee last played for the College World Series title in 1951 and Texas A&M has never made the finals.
The first pitch is scheduled for Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
🤟 Thanks for reading this far 🤟
Godfrey used the word “quant” to describe me, and I’d like to say that’s quite aspirational. I enjoy digging into numbers as it relates to sports. I’m learning as I go, and improving how I communicate with data. Some of my best work comes when I collaborate with other people that are much smarter than me, like building WABStick with Ryan Campbell. If you want to work on something together, please let me know.
The CWS Finals or National Championship became a best-of-three series in 2003.
Conference pride is exhausting, and the SEC is guaranteed its fifth consecutive college baseball title. It just means more money. And to use a Godfrey’ism - it’s like the league has been artistically cheating for quite some time.
If I might make a suggestion to the table, change 'Runner-Up' to 'Finalist'.