083: Last 10 ACC Tournaments
Cocktail party or not, the tournament can mean a lot to certain teams.
The ACC Tournament and the league itself doesn’t have the same prominence that it did years ago. Its been 20(!) years since Roy Williams called it a cocktail party and 10 years since the league expanded and changed the tournament format.
The 2014 ACC Tournament was the league’s first to feature 15 teams. The addition of more teams brings a format where the top four seeds receive a double-bye. This format is still used today.
Last week, we covered how the ACC should consider different ways to break ties when it comes to the conference tournament. The league was fortunate that the weekend’s results left the tiebreaker process out of awarding teams an extra bye (Pitt was outright 4th, 5-7 all tied, and 8-9 tied).
The goal this week is to accomplish greatness1 look back at how certain seeds and teams have performed in this tournament format. Bracket luck is real and matchups matter just like they do in the NCAA Tournament.
So, what’s the record by seed in the ACC Tournament since 2014? And which seed has won the most titles?
The seeds that have won the last three conference tournaments:
4 seed Georgia Tech in 20212
7 seed Virginia Tech in 2022
4 seed Duke in 2023
The number one overall seed has won four titles. This includes the 2020 title that was awarded to Florida State after the tournament was cancelled due to COVID. Only six games were played in the 2020 tournament.
The two seed is an even 9-9 in the tournament without any titles since 2014. This is an identical record as the 10 seed over the same time frame. The two seed has competed in the championship game three times (2016, 2021, 2023) though.
The previous two seeds include:
Number two seeds since 2014
3...Virginia (2016, 2020, 2023)
2...Duke (2015, 2018)
2...Florida State (2017, 2021)
1...Syracuse (2014)
1...North Carolina (2019)
1...Notre Dame (2022)
# Two seed did not play a game in 2020The third seed posts the second best record in tournament play (won 65% of games), which includes two titles. The fourth seed also can claim a pair of titles.
Six of the last nine championship games have featured seeds one through four or the teams that received the double-bye. Duke won the tournament as the fifth seed in 2017, North Carolina lost in the title game as the six seed in 20183, and Virginia Tech won the tournament in 2022 as the seven seed.
The only 15 seed to win a game in the tournament is Notre Dame in 2019.
What about teams with the best records and most tournament titles in this span?
Duke owns the best record over the last 10 tournaments and it has won three of the last 10 tournament titles.
Virginia has the best seed average (2.2) over the last 10 tournaments. The Cavaliers have won two tournament titles under Tony Bennett. Perhaps more impressive, Virginia has been seeded no lower than sixth in this span.
Both Duke and Virginia withdrew from the 2021 tournament due to COVID, and Virginia did not play before the 2020 tournament was cancelled.
Wake Forest has won only ~23 percent of its games over the past 10 league tournaments. The Demon Deacons are seeded fifth for the second time in the past three seasons. Wake failed to advance in 2022 as the fifth seed in a five-point loss to Boston College4.
North Carolina has played in 25 tournament games since 2014, the most by any member school. Let’s all forget the Heels were seeded 14th in 20205. After winning one game, Carolina got shellacked by a bad Syracuse team while the world was learning about a global pandemic.
So, who is going to win the tournament this season?
It’s now legal to bet in the state of North Carolina, but don’t worry no one has paid me to shill out any advertisements.
If you’re looking for some data to inform your bets, Bart Torvik’s conference tournament simulation tool is fantastic. You can filter and slice the data in so many ways, and it’s all free.
For example, if you filter by conference games only and the past 10 games, you’ll find that the second seed, Duke, has a ~45% chance to win the tournament. Clemson as the sixth seed checks in at 12.4% to win the whole thing, which could also provide some value given their implied odds (+950) are about ~9.5%.
The tournament is a cocktail party. It’s a way for the league to accomplish greatness make money. This season the ACC Tournament can dramatically impact the trajectory of several teams, whether those teams win it all or lose right away.
North Carolina and Duke are still competing to make a case to open the NCAA Tournament in Charlotte as top seeds. Clemson can improve its résumé and seeding in the NCAA Tournament with a couple wins.
Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest continue to hover around the bubble. All three will have quality opportunities on a neutral floor to solidify its standing in the NCAA Tournament.
Cocktail parties can be fun, terrible, and even a time to accomplish greatness™.
One more thing, don’t fall for the quad business
As you may have heard on various national outlets, North Carolina’s season-ending win at Duke, combined with Arizona and Tennessee dropping games this past weekend, has vaulted the Heels into the conversation for the final NCAA Tournament one seed6.
The committee will look across multiple metrics to dole out the seeds, but here at Bless your chart, WAB has our heart. Well, actually it has our head because that's what you should use to make decisions.
If we crack the WABStick, we can see that Carolina and Tennessee are neck and neck. Both have high end résumé-defining wins (the tall green bars to the left) and a few slip ups further down (large red bars on the right).
Many will split the teams' résumé up by Quadrant, but don’t fall for the quad business7. The quad system frequently mis-identifies games, especially easier Q1 games and tougher Q2 games. When we break down the Vols' and Heels' results by difficulty, it’s still neck and neck.
If only the committee could look to some sort of head-to-head result. In all seriousness, it may boil down to which team goes farther in their respective conference tournament.
If both teams have similar showings, it will continue to be a real nail-biter for Selection Sunday, and we all know TV executives love a nail-biter.
Thanks for reading this far, and subscribe if you want!
Selection Sunday is looming, so if you want to compare résumés of two teams using wins-above-bubble, check out a free tool I built with Ryan Campbell (@5th_Factor):
We don’t talk enough about how this is the ACC’s official slogan. #AccomplishIt
Yes, Georgia Tech avoided playing number one seed Virginia. The Cavaliers withdrew from the 2021 tournament due to COVID.
UNC was the sixth seed in the 2018 ACC Tournament and a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The time lord dunk in Charlotte, my goodness.
Not sure Randolph Childress, Tim Duncan, or Tony Rutland are walking through that door this year, but it’s imperative that Wake win at least a game this tournament.
Armando Bacot’s rookie campaign. 14th was last place in 2020 because Georgia Tech was serving a post-season suspension.
A one seed this season would mark UNC’s 18th in its history, extending its lead in this category over Kansas (15 total).
This sounds better in my head in Dan Bonner’s voice.