147: Kind of blue: NBA Draft edition
A look at the NBA draft through the lens of Duke and North Carolina.
We can use sports to tell time. In November 2009, North Carolina men’s basketball was coming off its second national title in five seasons and securing elite recruits at a consistent pace.
Harrison Barnes announced his commitment to UNC over Skype1 on November 13, 2009. Barnes selected Carolina over other blue blood programs like Kansas and Duke. And this commitment reinforced the perception that the Blue Devils were falling out of favor with elite talent.
Duke lost him, and they lost him to the program they’re so fervently chasing for superiority in its vaunted rivalry (and, by extension, national supremacy). And while this was open to myriad interpretation, Barnes’ statement that he had a great relationship with Coach K, but a great relationship with Williams and UNC’s players will raise the volume on already-audible whispers that Duke has fallen out of favor with elite basketball talent.
Barnes’ recruitment like no other - Bomani Jones
November 13, 2009
Despite securing a commitment from Kyrie Irving for the 2010-11 season, the idea that elite recruits did not favor Duke was real at the time. The Blue Devils hadn’t yet become the reliable talent factory they are today.
But right before a trend changes, there will be maximum agreement by experts and others that the trend will not end.
By April 2010, Duke had won its fifth national title. And by summer's end of 2010, North Carolina was starting a seven-year saga of NCAA scandals.
Irving's collegiate career was abbreviated. He played only 11 games due to injury and never even faced an ACC opponent. His talent was overwhelming though, and he was selected first overall in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Fast-forward to 2025, and there are already audible whispers that North Carolina has fallen out of favor with elite talent or developing its elite talent.
Duke and UNC first round NBA draft picks since 2004
Since 2004, when the NBA expanded to 30 teams, the shift in NBA talent becomes more clear. From 2004 to 2010, North Carolina produced nine first-round picks to Duke's four. Six of those Carolina players were selected in the lottery or within the first 14 picks of the draft.
From 2011 to 2024, Duke has produced 15 lottery picks. In the same time frame, North Carolina has produced 14 first round picks in total and five in the lottery.
You can find a list of all 55 first round picks from Duke and UNC here.
Talent changes with the times
Out of Duke's 32 first-round picks since 2004, 21 of those picks played in fewer than 50 collegiate games. Only seven of North Carolina's 23 first-round picks played under 50 games in their college career.
For instance, Brice Johnson, selected 25th overall in 2016, played in 148 collegiate games at North Carolina. That's 39 more games than Duke's last three lottery picks combined: Jared McCain (36 games), Dereck Lively (34), and Paulo Banchero (39).
Professional success isn’t automatic
This difference in collegiate experience doesn't always translate to professional success. Just like being selected in the lottery or first round doesn't guarantee future success for the player or validate the collegiate program's approach.
It’s worth pointing out that 19 of Duke's 32 first-round picks were on NBA rosters at the start of the 2024-25 season compared to only five of Carolina's 23 first-round picks since 2004.
Every player or pick is unique though. The 2019 NBA draft is a fun example because it illustrates how hard it is to predict future success.
Duke produced three lottery picks in 2019 (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish) while North Carolina produced two (Coby White, Cameron Johnson). Williamson, selected number one overall, has played 208 fewer NBA games than Coby White, selected seventh overall in that 2019 draft.
Looking ahead
These numbers will shift again this week. After one season, North Carolina's Drake Powell is projected as a first-round2 or early second-round pick in this season’s draft. He’s also from Pittsboro, North Carolina3 and likely the only UNC player to be selected in this year’s NBA draft.
Duke's Cooper Flagg is known to be the first overall pick, with classmates Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach likely lottery selections. If all three go in the lottery, Duke will have 18 lottery picks since 2011, which is a complete 180 from those 2009 concerns about acquiring elite talent.
When Flagg is selected first overall, it will mark the sixth time a Duke player has been chosen first overall and the fourth such number one selection from Duke since 2011. That’s the most among any college program. The next program behind Duke is Kentucky with three number one overall selections.
Bottom line
Whether you want to debate these numbers as proof that one program is superior to the other is entirely up to you, and you can do so here. Programs ebb and flow like everything else in life.
It's fashionable to question North Carolina basketball today. Whether it’s a $14 million roster or the misuse of a player that transferred, the sideshow distractions are hard to ignore as of late. But if you’re trying to sort out what is wrong, you might be overthinking it.
North Carolina simply hasn’t won enough games lately.
Among teams that have played at least 130 games over the past four seasons, North Carolina's .692 win percentage ranks 24th out of 108 teams4. Given the program's expectations, that's going to be a cause of concern.
Harrison Barnes, whose 2009 commitment symbolized Carolina's recruiting dominance, played in all 82 regular season games this season. He’s a 13-year veteran that has played in 993 career games with estimated career earnings of $204 million. While his projected stardom may not have been fully realized, his professional success is undeniable.
It’s also undeniable that attracting elite talent is now a hallmark of Duke basketball. Maybe gathering more elite talent helps North Carolina win more games, lottery picks are certainly valuable in multiple ways. But at this point, it doesn't matter all that much how it happens.
Carolina basketball is kind of blue right now. But nothing stays off tempo forever.
A disclaimer is this analysis could probably be more pedantic. For example, this only surfaces players that were drafted and ended their collegiate career with Duke or UNC. For instance, Walker Kessler is not part of the data, but Cameron Johnson is included.
Instead of using first round picks, you could also try to surface the picks by value. Kevin Pelton did that years ago, and many still find it useful. It does require some adjustments a lot given all the salary cap changes (second apron is an odd term, right?).
Anyhow, thanks for reading this far. As far as a recommendation this week, huge shoutout to sports-reference.com. I think we all take for granted how useful the site is across so many sports. It’s where I got a ton of the data for this newsletter, including this post.
Another recommendation around NBA Draft data is from Tawny Park Metrics. The site is super slick, and the write—ups are well thought out.
🤟 The news is pretty terrible, hopefully this post wasn’t 🤟
Skype being folded into Microsoft Teams is an abomination.
If selected in the first round, Powell would represent the first player under Hubert Davis to be an NBA first round pick.
How many of these Duke and UNC players selected in the first round since 2004 were from the state of North Carolina? If we use the actual birthplace, not the high school or prep school location, we find eight of these players were from North Carolina.
UNC: Day'Ron Sharpe (Greenville), Coby White (Goldsboro), P.J. Hairston (Greensboro), John Henson (Greensboro), Rashad McCants (Asheville)
Duke: Zion Williamson (Salisbury), Harry Giles (Winston-Salem), Brandon Ingram (Kinston)
Only 10 teams that have played at least 130 games over the past four seasons have a win percentage of .750 or better: Houston: .868 (132-20), Duke .807 (121-29), Gonzaga .803 (110-27), Purdue .789 (116-31), UConn .782 (115-32), Drake .778 (105-30), Saint Mary's .776 (104-30), Arizona .772 (112-33), Auburn .766 (108-33), Tennessee .752 (109-36)