125: Snapshots
A look at the past 45 days of NET rankings across conferences, and touchdown or more favorites in college football title games.
Last week, I wrote about the NET rankings and how spending time on daily changes in rankings is about as useful as weighing yourself every hour.
That’s a poor metaphor.
But there might be some utility in viewing NET rankings over an extended period of time. The first NET rankings of this season debuted December 1.
After 45 days, we’re halfway done with the 2024-25 college basketball season. Fewer than 50 percent of games remain for the majority of teams.
Before January 15th, there were 1,984 games played between teams from different conferences.
After this date, there are just 14 non-conference games remaining this regular season. That represents 0.71 percent of the non-conference slate.
12 of those 14 games were scheduled earlier this week between the Sun Belt and MAC. Hampton (CAA) and Howard (MEAC) play February 1st in Washington DC and Duke meets Illinois on February 22 in Madison Square Garden.
These games stand out and make sense. Because as conferences expand, there are wider ranges of team strengths across different leagues.
If we take a look over the past 46 days, we can spot trends across different conferences. This chart shows the best ranked team, the median ranking of all teams, and the worst ranked team in six leagues over this time span.
These six conferences are the most likely1 as of today to receive multiple bids.
You can see that the spread of strength across different leagues. The ACC has a median ranking across its 18 teams that has hovered around 100. Today, it’s 87th or the 76th percentile.
The SEC has a median ranking across its 16 teams that has yet to dip below 32nd or the 92nd percentile over these 46 days. As of today, the median ranking of SEC teams is 23rd or the ~94th percentile.
The three bigs - Big 12, Big Ten, Big East - all have a median NET ranking around 50th today too. The Big East started closer to 100th, but has trended upward over the past 45 days going from 92nd to 58th today or the 84th percentile.
While the 11 teams in the Mountain West have a better median ranking than the ACC (86th), but by far the worst ranked team in Air Force at 296th or the 19th percentile.
When it’s easier to pick up a bad loss than a good win, it begs the question why more teams aren’t demanding a different schedule?
Not even every team is going to make some of these conference tournaments2.
The Sun Belt and MAC created a strategic committee and figured out better way to do it. What is stopping other leagues from being more imaginative with scheduling?
Anyhow, you’ve noticed that I’ve referenced percentiles above. I suspect this might be a more useful way to think of NET rankings.
You can find percentiles of NET rankings for all 364 D-I teams and other useful college hoops data here: byc.evidence.dev
You can view various metrics and trends for any team. If you spot something off or have an idea for something to add or remove, please subscribe and let me know.
College football championship game
Since 1998, only seven of the last 26 National Championship games have had a point spread of eight or more points.
Monday marks the eighth such matchup, with Ohio State favored by 8.5 points against Notre Dame. How have underdogs performed in these previous games?
Underdogs are 2-5 outright and 3-4 against the spread in the previous seven title games with a point spread of eight or more points. The three favorites that have covered the spread in these championship games did so by an average of 36.3 points.
Ohio State beat Miami 34-31 in double overtime in the 2002 title game3 as a 11.5 point underdog. Oklahoma won as a 10.5 point dog in 2000 with a 13-2 victory over favorite Florida State.
In a sport that features useless arguments about hypotheticals and predictions, I wonder if we’ll see some luck of the Irish on Monday.
Thanks for reading this far, and happy Friday. Find the code for the charts in this post and other posts here.
Look I’m not a bracketologist. I’m trying to write this entire post without using a word that rhymes with flawed. If you’re looking for an archive of all NET rankings for this season, you can find data here.
Seriously is Virginia going to miss the ACC Tournament? The Wahoos are 8-9 overall.
Chris--I think you mean Ohio State is favored by 8.5 over Notre Dame not UGa, right? Love your posts!