This is really interesting, because in isolation point differential is one of the most important stats out there to gauge the quality of a team. However, if a team knows that they're being graded by point differential and begins to play accordingly, it becomes a lot less meaningful statistic. Being an NFL guy, my mind drifts to the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, who if you just look at top level numbers are one of the biggest outliers in the history of the league, finishing with a .500 record despite a point differential of positive 119 (7.44 points per game). That is, until you see that the team scored at different points in the season a 42-7 win, a 41-10 win, and a 61-7 win. Adding these three games together you get a point differential of 120.
Exempting these three games, the Bengals are still a team that underperforms their peripherals (a 5-8 record with a -1 point differential is not typical), but not one of the biggest outliers in NFL history, like they look on paper. Part of me wonders if college sport formulas that bake in point differential, given long enough, would incentivize every team to make themselves look like the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals. Every team would want to make themselves look like such big outliers, when in reality they aren't.
This is really interesting, because in isolation point differential is one of the most important stats out there to gauge the quality of a team. However, if a team knows that they're being graded by point differential and begins to play accordingly, it becomes a lot less meaningful statistic. Being an NFL guy, my mind drifts to the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, who if you just look at top level numbers are one of the biggest outliers in the history of the league, finishing with a .500 record despite a point differential of positive 119 (7.44 points per game). That is, until you see that the team scored at different points in the season a 42-7 win, a 41-10 win, and a 61-7 win. Adding these three games together you get a point differential of 120.
Exempting these three games, the Bengals are still a team that underperforms their peripherals (a 5-8 record with a -1 point differential is not typical), but not one of the biggest outliers in NFL history, like they look on paper. Part of me wonders if college sport formulas that bake in point differential, given long enough, would incentivize every team to make themselves look like the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals. Every team would want to make themselves look like such big outliers, when in reality they aren't.