105: Competence
A look a UNC's defense and games scheduled between FBS conferences.
A year ago, North Carolina opened the 2023 football season with a 31-17 win over South Carolina. The Heels recorded nine sacks and held the Gamecocks to negative two rushing yards.
It appeared the Carolina defense was going to be a major factor in a successful season. The truth is UNC finished the 2023 season ranked 97th out of 133 FBS teams in total defense. UNC lost five of its last six games against FBS opponents.
This season, Carolina welcomes its third defensive coordinator since the 2019 season. The Heels have employed six different defensive coordinators1 since 2014.
While there are tons of other question marks, including at quarterback and offensive line, what I find most intriguing about this season is if UNC can deliver a competent defense.
Because it’s been awhile since Carolina football had a competent defense.
In order to define competence, let’s use historical SP+ ratings. SP+, created by Bill Connelly, is a tempo-and-opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.
The table below shows the average SP+ rating and percentile for the Carolina defense since the 1988 season. The data is grouped by each coaching tenure. This spans Mack Brown 1.0 to present day or Mack Brown 2.0.
The lower the rating, the better the defense.
The higher the percentile, the better the defense.
Carolina’s defense has only ranked above the 70th percentile in 13 of the last 36 seasons. The last time the UNC defense ranked above the 70th percentile was the 2016 season.
Carolina’s defense has yet to rank above the 65th percentile over the past five seasons under Mack Brown 2.0. The final two seasons of Mack Brown 1.0 (1996, 1997), UNC’s defense was dominant as it ranked in the 96th or 97th percentile.
If the defense can’t be dominant, can it be competent?
Of course, a competent defense doesn’t always mean great results.
The Carolina defense was above the 70th percentile in three of its four seasons under Butch Davis. Even with a competent defense, the Heels still only won about 55 percent of its games under Davis.
Is eight wins pretty good around here?
We’ve all sort of lost the plot on this comment or quote from Mack Brown after the NC State loss last season. The direct quote was actually:
I keep looking for ways to win more than eight games and we’ve got a chance to win nine again — which is pretty good around here — in the bowl game.
If we sort Carolina’s win percentage under its last six head coaches, Mack Brown 1.0 (.600) is first and followed by Mack Brown 2.0 (.585) in second.
Now, through Larry Fedora’s first five seasons, UNC returned a 40-25 record (.615) or two games better than the current Mack Brown 2.0 record (38-27 or .585). UNC won only five of its last 23 games in Fedora’s final two seasons as head coach though.
Consider the following . . .
The last time UNC won eight games or more in three consecutive full seasons was 2008, 2009, and 2010 under Butch Davis. This includes postseason or bowl games2.
The last time UNC won eight games or more in three consecutive regular seasons was 1992, 1993, and 1994 under Mack Brown 1.0. This excludes postseason games.
Eight or nine wins is actually pretty good around here.
So, why is it so hard to reconcile Carolina football’s recent performance?
Expectations. North Carolina has lost seven games outright as a double-digit favorite. You expect a better record or higher percentage of wins over the past five seasons.
Another confounding thing about the current state of North Carolina football is the program has seldom felt complementary over its past five seasons.
It’s tricky to articulate, but it sort of feels like the offense, defense, and special teams all operate independent of one another. Different identities and no clear through line across each phase.
Field position matters. Brian Fremeau defines Net Starting Field Position (NFP) as the difference between offensive starting field position and opponent offensive starting field position on non-garbage, regulation drives in FBS vs. FBS games.
Here is where Carolina ranks in NFP over the past five seasons:
2023: 118th out of 133
2022: 59th out of 131
2021: 82nd out of 130
2020: 56th out of 120
2019: 88th out of 130
Anyhow, enough about Carolina.
Network of teams
The 12-team playoff has built in automatic qualifiers through conference champions. It still leaves several opportunities for at-large bids, but with conference expansion3, it means a conference’s perception remains important.
One thing worth tracking this season is games between FBS conferences. And to start, here is a table showing the number of 2024 games scheduled between FBS conferences.
A few notes:
11 games between the ACC and SEC
15 games between the Pac-2 (Oregon State & Washington State) and Mountain West
Nine games scheduled between the Big Ten and MAC
Eight games scheduled between the Big 12 and Mountain West
Only four games schedule between the “Power 2” (Big Ten and SEC)
A disclaimer when looking at these numbers is quantity and quality are two different things. Similar to how strength of schedule is not the same as strength of record.
🤟 Thanks for reading this far, and if you’re curious, you can find the code to generate these two charts here. Enjoy the first full weekend of college football 🤟
Geoff Collins (2024), Gene Chizik 2.0 (2022-23), Jay Bateman (2019-21), John Papuchis (2017-18), Gene Chizik 1.0 (2015-16), Dan Disch/Ron West (2014).
Remember when bowl games mattered? The playoff likely makes bowl games even more of odd exhibition. It’s encouraging that postseason games don't count against the limit for the redshirt rule this season, which maybe makes it easier to manage opt-outs?
A lot of these mega conferences feel simultaneously deep and shallow?