100: Experiencing schedule difficulties
An attempt to define 2024 ACC football strength of schedule in conference play.
Everything about ACC football feels weird today. The league’s geography spans three time zones. The legal arguments are non-stop.
All Coasts Conference or the Affidavits and Contracts Conference1 would likely be a better name.
Instead the ACC’s messaging is sterile. The league’s slogan has become Accomplish Greatness. And with the addition of three new members this season, the league has alerted us that Greatness is becoming Greater?
Why not embrace the weird?
That’s what I’m going to try to do with previewing the 2024 ACC football season with preseason win totals and in-conference strength of schedule.
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Below is a chart showing each team’s preseason win total, conference strength of schedule, and league opponents for the 2024 ACC regular season.
The table is sorted by hardest league schedule at the top to easiest at the bottom. The schedule strength is relative based on preseason win totals. Strength is adjusted for home/away/neutral site games (see how it’s calculated in the footnotes2).
The table includes all 17 full-time members, plus part-timer Notre Dame.
Georgia Tech has the hardest league schedule. The Yellow Jackets weakest league opponent is Duke. Georgia Tech plays Miami, NC State, and Notre Dame all at home, but somehow opens the season against Florida State in Ireland. Yes, Ireland.
A 5.5 preseason win total makes sense given the hardest schedule in the league and its annual season ending meeting with Georgia.
Stanford owns the league’s lowest preseason win total at 3.5. The Cardinals face the second toughest league schedule with cross-country road trips at Clemson, at NC State, and at Syracuse.
Four teams - Duke, Virginia, Boston College, Florida State - all have relatively the same strength of schedule in league play. The problem is the Blue Devils (5.5), Wahoos (4.5), and Eagles (4.5) all are expected to be not very good with sub-six preseason win totals.
The Seminoles should find some easy wins at home against Cal and Boston College, but face tricky road games at Notre Dame and at SMU. The 9.5 preseason total for Florida State feels razor sharp with marquee matchups against Clemson and Miami that likely determine its college football playoff fate.
This brings us to a cul-de-sac of teams - Cal, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Miami, and Wake Forest - surely no one has thought of these teams together at any point. All five of these squads face similar in-conference schedule difficulties too, so let’s highlight a couple.
I encourage you to find six wins on Cal’s schedule3. A preseason win total of 5.5 with an out-of-conference slate that includes Auburn and San Diego State. Combine that with ACC road trips to Tallahassee and Dallas, and tough home games against Miami and NC State.
A 9.5 preseason win total for Miami is aspirational. The Hurricanes are paying for a talented quarterback, but will the ‘Canes give away another league win like last season? Miami’s October slate at Cal, at Louisville, and home against Florida State looms large.
A trio of teams - Clemson, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech - are in the half of the league with easier conference schedules. The Orange’s new head coach Fran Brown receives a warm ACC welcome with games at Cal and home against Stanford.
Clemson avoids playing a single team coming off a bye and its away league opponents have an average preseason win total of six. If Clemson doesn’t go over the projected 9.5 win total, it might be because out-of-conference games against Georgia, Appalachian State, and South Carolina.
Virginia Tech’s 8.5 preseason win total is curious4. The only league games on the Hokies’ schedule that smell are road trips to Miami and Stanford(!), and a home game against Clemson.
A foursome of NC State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and SMU receive the easiest ACC schedules this season.
The Wolfpack play at Cal and host Stanford, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. Yes, State has a tough trip to Clemson and it will try to find yet another way to embarrass its neighbor at the end of the season too.
North Carolina doesn’t play Cal, Stanford, or SMU. The Heels two toughest league opponents come in November with games at FSU and home against NC State. As a reminder, Carolina is 4-6 against ACC opponents in the month of November the past three seasons5.
The luck of the Irish. Notre Dame only plays one of its five ACC opponents (Georgia Tech) away from home this season. The average preseason win total of those five teams is ~7, but the home field advantage is useful. A preseason win total of 10.5 means the expectation for the Irish is to earn a college football playoff spot.
This brings us to the team with the easiest league schedule. SMU gets to boulevard against the likes of Boston College, Cal, Florida State, and Pittsburgh. The Mustangs last six games of the regular season are all against ACC opponents. The average preseason win total of those six teams is ~4.8!
The Affidavits and Contracts Conference is weird. I mean look at this graphic.
Split Zone Duo previewed the ACC a couple weeks ago, and presented a different slogan for the league. Chaos wrapped in mediocrity.
Maybe mediocrity is becoming more chaotic?
Or chaos is becoming mediocre?
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The goal of this newsletter is not to create good #content. I’m trying to put something silly in the world that hasn’t been there before. The code and data skills I’m picking up along the way are just an incentive to keep going.
Of course, I want people to read or share my stuff too. For example, last Wednesday I chatted with Ovies and Giglio about the college basketball ref travel tracker. It’s super fun to work on something and talk about it with people, and think of other questions to ask of the data6.
And if you’re still reading this far, thank you, because you’re also reading the 100th edition of this newsletter. I’ve been running it for almost two years now and chaos wrapped in mediocrity would also be a good way to describe it.
Please subscribe if you haven’t already.
Shoutout Bill Connelly and his ACC preview over at ESPN+ for this one.
SOS is determined using the relative strength based on preseason totals from FanDuel. It computes strength as the opponent’s preseason win total divided by the maximum win total (10.5). It takes the average of each team’s opponents and adjust for location (home: 0.9, away: 1.1, neutral: 1). This gives us a strength number between 0.0 and 1.0, and the higher the number, the harder the schedule.
Take the under 5.5 on the preseason win total. This is not financial advice.
I’m not sure Virginia Tech is back, but the schedule is advantageous and the 8.5 number is trying to exploit that. 8 feels like a better number. The Hokies play Vanderbilt (2.5), Marshall (5.5), Old Dominion (4.5), and Rutgers (6.5) out of conference too.
Carolina football as a product is in the fidelity belly right now. The fanbase is trending toward apathetic, it has no clear quarterback, another new coordinator, and its blurry on the next head coach it wants to elect. That being said, 🫡 8-4 feels quite possible 🫡
Ref tracking in college basketball is ripe for some more attention in the future. I also should get a better microphone.
Any chance for a football referee tracker for offensive and defensive holding calls in the future?