093: Digging (into) the long ball
College baseball teams are hitting home runs more frequently this season.
On average, Division-I college baseball teams are hitting a home run every 29 at-bats this season. 10 years ago, teams hit home runs about every 86 at-bats.
It’s rare now to watch a game where a home run is not hit. In fact, a team hits about 1.15 home runs per game this season.
If the same rate holds for the rest of the season, it would mark an all-time record in the history of the sport.
Last season, teams hit 1.13 home runs per game, which eclipsed the previous record from the 1998 season1 (1.08 home runs per game).
Why are teams hitting so many home runs?
I don’t know if there is one reason.
About a year ago, J.J. Cooper explored this question for Baseball America. Cooper surfaced three possible reasons: balls, bats, and cheating.
Balls
The height of the seams of the ball can affect how it travels. Major League Baseball’s most known dead ball era was over a century ago. The same phenomenon cropped up a couple seasons ago too.
The problem is there are far more Division-I teams than in the major leagues. It’s harder to police and regulate the standardization of balls. Of course, there are more ballparks too with different effects too2.
Bats
Batted Ball Coefficient of Restitution or BBCOR is the standard created by the NCAA to regulate the equipment used in competition. This standard went into effect in 2011.
While the NCAA is all about fairness, Cooper highlights how bats becoming better performing as they age. As the bats get “broken in”, the trampoline effect increases or the bats become more powerful.
Maybe collegiate teams are storing away older bats and it leads hitting more home runs?
Cheating
Chicks dig the long ball3.
I don’t suspect collegiate players are widely using performance enhancing drugs. That seems unlikely given the current landscape of major league testing and NCAA protocols.
When referencing cheating, Cooper makes a compelling case around teams using illegal bats though. The article shares that teams know there are loopholes to bat testing, plus there is little incentive to not use an illegal bat, and it even dives into insurance claims around bat speeds and injuries.
Umpires often pay attention to pitchers using foreign substances, but are they checking bats as often? And if home runs are up across the entire sport, are all teams using illegal bats?
Are more home runs good for the sport?
Home runs bring entertainment, but I would argue some of the most pleasant baseball games I’ve ever watched were games with not a lot of runs scored.
For example, a two-and-fifteen minute game with a final score of 2-0 featuring only two pitchers.
More runs tend to mean longer games. And I think that is a criticism of all of baseball. MLB has made significant rule changes to reduce game times.
College baseball has experimental rules to try to reduce time too. The ACC and SEC also have implemented run rules in conference play, which feel like a win-win for everyone. Last week, it was surreal watching North Carolina walk-off a win in the bottom of the eighth because its lead was 10 runs.
Why else could home runs be going up?
Perhaps, another reason there are more home runs is the players are actually better or at least older. The COVID year brought another year of eligibility, the draft reduced its number of rounds, and the transfer portal has created enormous roster sizes.
If players are spending more developmental years in college with aluminum bats, it might explain some of the surge in home runs or offense.
Anyhow, the increase in offense should be a key storyline as we head into the NCAA Tournament in June. And will it become a big enough storyline to prompt rule changes in the future?
The chart in this post is an XmR style chart. You can find the code here, and check out this open source tool to generate your own XmR charts too. The idea behind an XmR chart is it shows the difference between routine and exceptional variation. It’s a style of chart that I think could be useful to apply to other trends in collegiate sports too.
USC beat Arizona State 21-14 in the 1998 College World Series final. The drop 5 bat era was a hell of a time.
Why are so many college teams playing on turf these days? I get it saves money. It’s bonkers to me that private schools in the climate of North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke, play on turf. Those schools have enough money to grow grass.
Tremendous Nike commercial. Comical to look back and think of the steroid use, Heather Locklear cameo, and the acting chops of Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux.