085: Range of Regions
A quick look at Game Score by Region of the NCAA Tournament and pick recommendations.
My better is better than your better.
About 15 years ago, Nike ran a campaign with that slogan. My memory recalls the campaign was popular ahead of the 2008 Final Four.
I recall North Carolina with shirts that said, “My better is better than your better.” As UNC trailed Kansas 40-12 in the first half1, it turns out Kansas’ better was better.
Bad slogans aside, one of the more curious data points listed on BartTorvik.com is Game Score. Torvik details the Game Score or G-Score in this blog post. In Torvik’s words:
It's actually possible to calculate a Barthag for each team for each individual game, since adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies are calculated game-by-game.
Because I can, I did. I'll call that game-by-game rating the G-Score. It goes from 0 (bad) to 100 (perfect). The average is 50. It will appear on the schedule portion of each team's T-Page.Some other nice things about G-Score is that it will allow us to see trends in a team's performance over time, and also to get an idea about how consistent a team is.
G-Scores are not set in stone. They will fluctuate as we learn more information about the teams, and as teams improve or get worse. So, for example, if it turns out that Western Illinois is actually the class of the Summit league, that loss will start to look better and the G-Score will rise.
Finally, a caveat. Individual basketball games are small-number events. Crazy stuff happens over a single 40 minute period, and we shouldn't make too much of any single game, or any single G-Score.
A Game Score is intriguing because it shows the range of a team. And in a single elimination tournament in March, a lot can happen.
A high average Game Score doesn’t mean the team will win the National Championship. It can give you an idea about the potential outcomes or performances of that team.
For example, maybe it can answer the question, is my better is better than your better?
So, what are the average Game Scores, best and worst performances, and average over the last 10 games of the current NCAA Tournament field?
Here we go . . .
East Region
UConn is the number 1 overall for a reason and the Huskies’ average game score over its last 10 games is 94.5
Northwestern’s average over its last 10 (85.4) is eight points higher than its season average (77.7)
San Diego State’s worst performance came in a three-point win over San Jose State (54.4). The Spartans finished the season at 9-23.
West Region
North Carolina’s worst Game Score was in its last game, an eight-point loss to NC State (56.6 Game Score)
Nevada’s average Game Score over its last 10 games (86.1) is about eight points higher than its season average (78.6)
Alabama, Clemson, and Dayton all have lower average Game Scores over their last 10 games than its season average2
College of Charleston’s worst Game Score came in a one-point win over 10-23 William & Mary (27.9)
Midwest Region
Tennessee’s worst Game Score (19.7) came in its last game, a 17-point loss to Mississippi State
Gonzaga, South Carolina, and Air Force all had their worst Game Score in game that they won. This would seem to suggest a weak schedule.
Virginia’s average Game Score over its last 10 games (61.6) is nearly a full nine points lower than its season average (70.7)3
South Region
Houston’s worst Game Score (25.4) came in its last game, a 28-point loss to Iowa State and even with that result the Cougars average Game Score over its last 10 is 90.3
Duke’s worst Game Score (38.8) was in an 18-point win over Southern Indiana, a game that was tied early in the second half
Colorado has a palindrome of scores (90-57 win over Oregon State and 57-90 loss to Arizona) in its best and worst performances, and the Game Scores are separated by about 80 points
What does it all mean?
You tell me.
I do think you can infer the range of how certain teams will perform. It’s curious that three regular season conference champions (North Carolina, Houston, Tennessee) all turned in their worst performances in their most recent result.
Game Score is not an exact science. As Torvik mentioned, a lot of wild things can happen in a single game, so don’t take one data point as gospel.
But remember that in a single elimination tournament, there are a range of possible outcomes and only one single data point matters, or six data points if you're lucky.
It’s why we watch.
Here are the best, average, and worst Game Scores of the last six champions in the NCAA Tournament or in that six game sample:
# Last Six Champions - Best, Avg, Worst
# Game Score in NCAA Tournament
Year Team Best Avg Worst
2023 Connecticut 99.7 98.9 97.4
2022 Kansas 99.5 95.9 91.0
2021 Baylor 99.9 98.2 95.7
2019 Virginia 98.9 93.8 80.1
2018 Villanova 99.6 98.8 97.6
2017 North Carolina 98.9 97.1 94.6No matter your past, you have a spotless future.
Who to pick?
Ryan Campbell, @5th_Factor, used Torvik’s data and the public data provided by Yahoo4 to recommend which teams to pick in your bracket pool. This plot shows the largely linear relationship between Yahoo! bracket picks and the “true” odds.
For instance, Torvik gives the Heels a 97.3% chance to defeat the Howard/Wagner winner and 96.4% of brackets have the Heels advancing - quite similar.
Where bracket pick % and “true” odds diverge is where you can find leverage picking your bracket. For instance, check out Florida. Nearly 75% of people are picking the Gators, while Torvik gives them about a 55% chance of advancing.
If you think the Gators’ chances are indeed closer to 50%, then about half of the time you’ll be right picking against them. But more importantly you’ll have gained an advantage over 75% of other bracket pickers!
Generally speaking, if teams are over picked, you want to avoid them because you won’t make as much headway up the bracket standings by being right.
Overall, our best advice would be to go with your gut, have fun, and use the bracket odds to break a tie if you have a close decision. Also, keep an eye on Ryan’s twitter for updated plots including Sweet 16, Final Four, and Champion advice.
Thanks for reading this far, happy March, and good luck. Please subscribe below if you haven’t already.
40-12 is a score burned into my memory even if it was a two possession game in the second half.
I’m not telling you to fade these three teams, but the performance as of late does not inspire confidence.
Tony Bennett admitted his mistake not fouling up three against NC State. My goodness that ending is still mind blowing.
ESPN seems to have removed its original page on Whom to Pick, which is a big bummer.