077: 🏀 ACC regular season title race and point differentials
Notes about the remaining league schedule and point differentials over time.
Since ACC men’s basketball has moved its regular season to 20 league games, the conference champion has lost no more than five games.
Florida State won the league with a 16-4 record during the 2019-20201 season. The 2020-2021 season didn’t feature 20 league games for any teams due to COVID.
The 2021-2022 regular season was won by Duke with a 16-4 overall record. And last season, Miami and Virginia each turned in a league best 15-5 regular season record.
So, what will the record of the regular season conference champion be in a few weeks?
According to barttorivk.com, three teams have 9.5 percent chance or better to win at least a share of the league. Those three teams also happen to be the only teams with double-digits wins so far: North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia. The usual suspects2.
Here are the remaining schedules for those three teams:
UNC plays four games at home, but two road games against the other two contenders
Duke has four away games remaining and three home games, two of those games are playing host to the other two contenders
Virginia plays three games at home and three on the road, and half of the remaining opponents own the best point differentials in the league so far
Wake Forest and Clemson also have a slim chance to win a share of the league too. The Demon Deacons trip to Charlottesville tomorrow is a gigantic game for NCAA Tournament aspirations, plus the league standings.
Point differentials so far
The regular season slate is about 70 percent complete, so let’s review the point differentials. A few random notes:
Clemson’s surge as of late is hard to ignore. The Tigers3 are 7-6 with a +24 point differential. Over the past few games, Clemson has reversed its negative point differential it established through the first 10 games.
UNC still owns the best point differential (+134), however, it’s even or zero through its last five contests.
Georgia Tech has the league’s worst point differential (-114) despite beating Duke, Carolina, and Clemson. Make it make sense.
Do you think the regular season conference champion will have more than five losses?
Thanks for reading this far, and please consider subscribing if you haven’t already. There are also two tools that you might find useful this basketball season:
CBB Conference Index: standings, head-to-head records, and fun with quadrants
WABStick: compare the résumés of two teams using wins-above-bubble
FSU winning the 2020 ACC Tournament remains bizarre.
A very good movie by the way. The devil’s greatest trick this season might be playing Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame all in the double round-robin.
Clemson’s seeding in the NCAA Tournament will be interesting to watch, especially if its league record hovers around .500. The Tigers win at Alabama is aging like fine wine.