072: Charity stripe improvements, plus remember WAB
Armando Bacot's free throw percentage improvement and remembering wins above bubble.
Armando Bacot has played 151 collegiate games. In Bacot’s first 132 games, the 6’11 center made 449 of his 676 free throw attempts. That’s ~66 percent.
Bacot’s improvement from the free throw line this season is remarkable.
Specifically, it’s 13 percentage points better.
In a smaller sample, Bacot has made 79-of-99 foul shot attempts so far this season.
Given Bacot’s base rate of a 66 percent clip over the past four seasons, he has tallied about 14 more points from the foul line by improving his percentage.
If you’re curious how this compares to other similar players1 from a season-to-season improvement, here are a few examples using cbbdata:
Mason Plumlee improved his free throw percentage from 52 percent as a junior to 68 percent as a senior (2012-13 season at Duke).
Kelly Olynyk made 70-of-115 foul shot attempts (61 percent) in his first two seasons as Gonzaga. Olynyk made 132-of-170 free throw attempts as a junior (77 percent).
Mo Alie-Cox made 60 percent from the foul line as a sophomore at VCU in 2014-15 season. Cox’s percentage jumped to 74.5 percent as a junior the following season.
Bacot is breaking people’s brains a bit
Armando Bacot is four games shy of tying Leaky Black’s record (155) for most games ever played. He is likely to break that record in a couple weeks.
Because no one else will have played more games in a Carolina uniform than Bacot, the veteran is also climbing up record books in counting statistics.
Bacot needs 75 points to pass Sam Perkins for third all-time in points scored. He is 219 points shy of Phil Ford (2,290) for second all-time.
Carolina has at least 12 regular season games left, and hopefully several more in the post-season. Bacot has a good chance to be second all-time in points scored by any Tar Heel.
Think about that.
Bacot already has more rebounds than any UNC player ever (1,523 and counting). He broke that record last season. Bacot is also on pace to become the first Tar Heel ever to snag 1,000 defensive rebounds.
He is fourth is ACC history in rebounds and third in double-doubles. There is a graphic sometimes flashed on ACC Network2 comparing Bacot’s double-doubles to Tim Duncan and Ralph Sampson. Remember that Bacot has played 20+ more games than both those all-time greats.
Armando Bacot is sometimes referred to as a trash man or garbage man. There are more explosive players and more efficient players. But I sort of sense the conversation has swung the other way with Bacot as a player lately.
Of course, he is what he is at this point. He has played 150 plus games.
But how many other players, given the same circumstances, would put up similar numbers?
He has missed only two games in his career so far. Two.
Bacot has brought durability, physicality, and defense to Carolina this season. His block rate so far this season (7.2) is the highest its been in his career.
A half baked theory is that the longer a collegiate player sticks around, the more likely people are to lose appreciation for that player.
We might not know what we got with Bacot until its gone3.
WAB is the way
We’ve reached the point of the college basketball season where we’re all lost in the NET and torturing ourselves by watching the numbers change.
This is when I want to remind you of WAB or wins above bubble. This explainer from Fifth Factor Plots last season is dynamite:
I find WAB easier to understand and more stable. It’s far from perfect, but no metric is actually perfect.
I’ve added each team’s WAB to the conference standings and point differentials here:
https://blessyourchart.shinyapps.io/cbb_conf_index/
This provides a quick glance on how to compare resumes across different teams. Only four teams - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and Syracuse - have a WAB above 0 as of today.
Good thing the season doesn’t end today.
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Similar is subjective here. I’m trying to filter by power forwards/centers with a free throw rate above 49, and at least 50 attempts.
Hilarious graphic and Reddit thread for multiple reasons, including people arguing about what a typo is or isn’t.
Going full Joni Mitchell here, and apologies.