068: Winning Ugly
North Carolina is winning ACC games without stellar offensive performances.
North Carolina beat NC State 67-54 to improve to 4-0 in ACC play. The Heels outscored NC State 21-10 over the final 11 minutes of the game to turn a two-point lead into another double-digit victory.
Carolina has now won 37 of its last 43 games against the Wolfpack. That’s 86 percent.
UNC is atop the ACC standings with a +44 point differential, it owns three road wins, and one home win. The Heels have won these games ugly.
We can assess shooting performance using effective field goal percentage1. As a reminder, eFG% factors in that a three-point shot is worth more than a two-point shot, so it’s calculated . . .
(FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGAThe four league opponents have recorded a 37.3 effective field goal percentage and made only 20.8 percent of its three-point shots (20-of-96).
Whether you believe that’s equal parts bad opponent offense or good Carolina defense, those are the numbers so far.
My guess is that of those 76 missed three-point shots, several were uncontested looks that didn’t go in and others were heavily contested. Without charting game-by-game, it’s difficult to discern2.
It’s fair to expect that level of shot luck is not sustainable. Opponents will shoot better.
What is surprising to me is how Carolina has played on offense during these four ACC games. Carolina’s worst shooting percentages have all come in ACC play this season. The Heels effective field goal percentage ranks 14 out of 15 teams through January 10 games.
Wednesday night was the first game all season that Carolina scored fewer than 1 point per possession. It was the team’s worst efficiency mark this season (0.93 points per possession), and it won the game by 13 points.
Carolina’s streak of 14 games scoring above 1 point per possession was its longest to start a season since the 2015-16 title run.
Since Carolina got dominated on the glass against Kentucky, the Tar Heels have rebounded 78.2 percent of opponent’s missed shots. This limits second chance opportunities and translates to better defense too.
It’s fair to expect opponents to shoot better against Carolina over the next 16 regular season games, but I would also bet Carolina turns in better offensive shooting performances during those games too.
🫡 Salute to Saban
Nick Saban completed his 17th consecutive season at Alabama and won six National Championships. Saban was one of the longest tenured coaches in all of FBS, and I wrote about the others this past summer.
What I do find weird is how many are pointing to long time coaches hanging it up based on how college athletics has changed. First, isn’t that true of any profession? The only constant is change.
Second, it’s not as though many of these coaches are all that young3. Saban is 72 years old. Mike Krzyzewski was 75 years old when he went on a retirement tour. Roy Williams was 70 years old when he retired.
I think it’s healthy to do something different at that age or a job that is less demanding on your family. Of course, college athletics is a full of shenanigans lately, but it feels like we’re missing the point. It’s good to know when it’s time to step away.
Good for Saban. What an astonishing coaching career.
If you’re ever looking to quickly calculate the four factors, I created this a long time ago for myself and still use it today: dadgumboxscores.com/calc/
I bet Adrian Atkinson of Inside Carolina will chart those shots, so it would be interesting to plot or compare those numbers. Shot luck is definitely a thing, but the defense does feel like it has improved.
Ovies and Giglio had Bomani Jones on earlier this week, and I thought Jones made a good point about Mack Brown. He didn’t leave Texas in a dignified manner. Here is that photo recruiting at Miami Central. Brown is now the winningest active coach in FBS, and the oldest too.