064: How > What
How and what, a tale as old as time.
Over the past three seasons, North Carolina football is 20-17 overall against FBS opponents.
An average of 7.7 wins over those three seasons is solid. The head coach might even refer to it as pretty good around here.
And that is an accurate statement by Mack Brown. In the 10 seasons prior to Brown’s second stanza as head coach, Carolina averaged 6.7 wins per season.
How Carolina has arrived at its record the past three seasons is remarkable. Specifically, when you break it down by point differential and record by month:
16-7 with a +185 point differential in September and October
4-10 with a -105 point differential in November and December
The disappointing end to the last three seasons is hard to explain1. The competition might be tougher, however, Carolina was favored in eight of the 14 games in the final two months of the last three seasons.
The Heels have lost four of those eight games outright, including as 21.5 point favorites at home against Georgia Tech in 2022. Results like that are examples of how Carolina has performed below expectations.
This over promising and under delivering means lots of friction2 between fans and the program. On the surface, around eight wins a year is pretty good around here.
How the program gets to those eight wins tells a different story though.
Thank you & Happy New Year
Thanks for reading this far, and please consider subscribing to this newsletter if you haven’t already done so.
As a reminder, this newsletter is an experiment. I seldom know what I’m doing, but I’m trying to use this outlet as a way to practice communicating with data around something I’m interested in - college sports and North Carolina.
I’m not trying to break news or create content. I’m trying to learn how to write better code and share some lukewarm takes every once in awhile. Almost all the code is written in R, and published here.
In 2024, I’m aiming to try different projects like fbs-logs3 and sharing more code via GitHub.
To be honest, I lost quite a bit of motivation over the past few weeks.
The passing of Eric Montross sort of gave me a “what is the point of anything?” type vibe. Maybe it’s because I’m older and I vaguely remember watching Montross play or because I recall listening to him a bunch on the radio or because I remember how he was in NBA Jam or because 52 years old is way too young or because I have kids of my own now too. I don’t know. But it caused some perspective.
🤟Life can change in an instant. Be kind. 🤟
You are not what you do. What you are is how you do it4.
UNC is now 4-10 in its last 14 bowl games too. This streak dates all the way back to when bowl games didn’t feature opt-outs or mayonnaise infomercials.
The relationship between the program and its fans feels way off. At times, the messaging from the program sort of feels like this line from the Sopranos.
Still working on providing a season end update on trying to predict duration/lengths of college football games. I’ve logged 868 total games featuring at least one FBS team this past season. I haven’t yet included the bowl games and not sure I will either?
Shoutout Phonte from Little Brother.
Leaving aside my appreciation for your insightful analysis, I want to address your mood concerns. Transient feelings of gloom at the holidays are not abnormal, but if this doesn’t lift for you soon, please see a professional about it. We need you around for what you do, but more importantly, your family needs you for who you are.
I enjoy reading your emails - your insights and observations are spot on. Still, I don't understand Carolina football. With a round ball, we compete strongly - soccer, tennis, golf, lacrosse, basketball, field hockey - both men and women, as appropriate - consistent top 10 rankings, and ACC and national championships. UNC has a lot to offer - an excellent education, a large and supportive alumni network, a beautiful campus, a rich athletic history. So why can we not compete in football?