062: Quadrant Opportunities are not equal
A look at projected quadrant opportunities as of December 11, 2023.
When we don’t understand something, we label it as bad or dumb.
College basketball fans, media, and coaches don’t quite understand the NET. And that’s why it remains a fascinating metric.
The main flaws in the NET all center around the lack of transparency. The NCAA doesn’t include the actual rating in the numbers.
For example, we know that today Arizona is first in the NET and Indiana State is 12th in the NET. We don’t know the distance between the actual rating of those two teams because it’s not visible.
Ken Pomeroy or Bart Torvik provide both the actual rating and the ranking. For example, Arizona’s adjusted efficiency margin of 31.38 is ~18 points better than Indiana State’s 13.24 adjusted efficiency margin.
While the NET doesn’t include preseason data, it also relies on a quadrant system that is arbitrary at best and silly at worst, especially when we don’t know the actual ratings.
Here is how the NCAA explains the quadrants:
Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.
So, if we know Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses are incredibly important when it comes time for Selection Sunday, which conferences are best prepared to gain Quadrant 1 wins?
There are 362 teams listed in the current NET rankings across 32 conferences. These conferences all have different league schedules with a different number of teams.
Using the NET rankings as of December 11, here are the quadrant opportunities based on games between two teams from the same conference:
A few notes based on this data:
~60% of Big 12 conference games would be in the first quadrant today. The Big 12 has 14 teams this season and plays a 18-game schedule. Each team plays five Big 12 opponents twice and the other eight conference opponents once.
The ACC plays 300 conference games in total because its 15 teams play a 20-game schedule. Only ~33.3% of ACC games today would be Quad 1 games. Yes, any game against Duke at home would not be a Quad 1 game because Duke is outside the top-30 in the NET.
Teams will play their two primary rivals both home and away (four games) and four repeat opponents both home and away (eight games). The remaining eight opponents will be single games, with four at home and four on the road.
The Mountain West consists of 11 teams that play an 18-game schedule where each team plays nine home games and make nine road trips. While the Mountain West’s average NET rating is outside the top-100, the league has about the same Quad 1 opportunities from league play as both the ACC and Pac-12.
My main takeaway from this information is league’s should be more creative about its scheduling of conference games. This is specific to the ACC.
A 20 game league schedule is a lot. I’ve written about this in the past, and I think the league should be open to different scheduling philosophies.
Why not try to play more conference games at neutral sites during the season?
Bring back the Big Four Tournament or create another in-season tournament similar to the NBA. What the hell is the ACC paying FishBait Solutions to do1?
Right now, it’s just as easy to get a Quad 3 or Quad 4 win or loss than it is a Quad 1 win or loss in ACC conference play. Louisville is down bad right now2 and anywhere you play the Cardinals is a Quad 4 game.
Remember, Louisville beat Clemson by 10 points at home last season and it was a glaring blemish on the otherwise solid tournament résumé, by the Tigers.
I’m confident we’ll continue to scream and shout about the NET over the next few months. If you have any questions or other ideas about this data, please let me know.
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The data in the table is provided by cbbdata, built by Andrew Weatherman. If you’re interested in Monday Movers in kenpom adjusted efficiency margin, check out the latest post by Trilly Donovan3.
The ACC’s press release for FishBait Solutions reads like it was written by ChatGPT.
Louisville is an absolute train wreck. The Cardinals have lost 21 straight road games. I’m amazed that there have been no coaching changes yet.
Nope, not sure of Trilly’s actual identity.