057: Week 11 is for ACC Football
A look ahead at this week's games.
All 14 ACC football teams play a conference opponent over the next few days. It’s the only week of the season when every team plays a league opponent.
Here are the updated conference standings with point differentials:
conference wins are in green
conference losses are in red
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Now, let’s have some fun and try to pick every league game this week against the spread1.
Louisville -20 hosting Virginia
That’s a whole lot of points. Virginia quarterback Tony Muskett left the Georgia Tech game with an injury, and a short week on the road is not a recipe for success.
Louisville is close to clinching a conference title appearance under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. Vibes are strong for the ‘Cards2.
Virginia Tech -1 at Boston College
Absolute toss-up of a game, but weights weigh the same?
Jeff Hafley and the Eagles have won five games in a row, but don’t look at the records of the teams that they’ve beat.
Georgia Tech +14.5 at Clemson
The Yellow Jackets have a good quarterback. I think I would even prefer Haynes King over Cade Klubnik. Tigers win this game, but Jackets figure out how to cover the 14.5
NC State -2.5 at Wake Forest
MJ Morris went full Larry Drew II3 this week. Despite the drama around the quarterback change, I think State is the more competent team.
Wake Forest has found ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory a lot this season, including last week in Durham.
Miami +14 at Florida State
I continue to believe Miami is a lot better than its record, and continue to be proven wrong. I think Mario Cristobol can lose this game in a way that still keeps him off the hot seat.
If all the receivers are healthy for the ‘Noles, expect them to score a lot of points. I see Florida State winning easily, but not by an embarrassing margin like last season.
Pittsburgh -3 at Syracuse
Put any negative thoughts in a vase, but I think Syracuse is looking for a new head coach at the end of this season.
Duke +11.5 at North Carolina
The Blue Devils have a chance to beat NC State, Wake Forest, and now North Carolina all in the same season. The quarterback situation makes me think Duke will struggle. I think Carolina gets back on track under the lights at home, but not by a double-digit margin.
Appreciation and Expectation
Dabo Swinney laid into Tyler from Spartanburg about the expectation being greater than the appreciation last week. Clemson then beat Notre Dame and Swinney became the all-time winningest coach in Clemson history.
Last week, Mack Brown shared there are fans bitching about six wins that didn’t show up for two games. North Carolina is now 7-2 after routing Campbell. Brown has won more football games as head coach at North Carolina than any other coach.
Earlier this season, Dave Doeren told fans, “shit, be happy we won” and even called out Steve Smith. Doeren set the school wins record after the Wolfpack handled Miami last week.
Swinney has 166 wins at Clemson. Brown has won 106 games at North Carolina. And Doeren has 78 wins at NC State.
Value is determined by the comparisons you make, and you can always make different comparisons.
Expectations grow with the results. And the expectation can exceed the appreciation based on how you do things.
Maybe it’s how you’re against the transfer portal and how you preach about Name, Image, and Likeness like you’re Baby Billy4. Or it’s how you lose as double-digit favorites repeatedly. Or how you describe the country is sometimes soft while sporting a losing record overall in conference play. And this is all while being paid millions of dollars.
Lost in the expectation and appreciation conversation is the how and the what.
The what is the outcome. The record. It rarely tells the whole story.
The how is the details. The context. It thickens the plot.
And the how can explain why the appreciation might not be greater than the expectation.
Felt this tweet about podcast ads in my bones. These picks are based more on vibes than actual data. If you’re looking for actual picks, check out SP+ picks and the CFB picks from R2 Metrics.
Can you imagine if UNC hired Scott Satterfield years ago? It feels like Louisville’s upgrade from Satterfield gets more remarkable by the week.
This is a bad joke, and I’m sorry. Objectively, the Morris situation seems super silly, but suppose this is the consequence of a lot of different rules and the current college landscape.
Righteous Gemstones is a good show.