056: Are games more competitive without divisions?
A look at the average margin of victory and home winning percentage in ACC games this season.
The average margin of victory yesterday across four games between two ACC teams was 22.5 points. NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Louisville all won by two touchdowns or more.
Earlier this year, I wrote about how the ACC was ditching divisions to create a more competitive regular season and conference championship game.
So far, are games more competitive?
Let’s compare margin of victory since divisions started or the 2005 season1.
The average margin of victory is 14.26 points across 38 regular season games this season.
Ten other regular seasons have a smaller margin of victory than 14.26. The 2008 regular season was the “most” competitive with an average margin of victory of 10.77 points.
The 2020 regular season was played without divisions and featured 70 regular season games with the addition of Notre Dame. The home team won ~63 percent of games that regular season, the most in any regular season in this time frame.
Through 38 games, the 2023 regular season is responsible for the the second highest home winning percentage at 60.5 percent.
Will the ACC Conference Championship game be more competitive?
The last six title games have been decided by average of 31.5 points. Clemson has won five of those six titles, but the Tigers will not be in Charlotte this year.
Louisville is 5-1 overall, and 3-1 against former Costal Division opponents, this regular season. The Cardinals are in pole position to meet Florida State for the conference title in December.
Predictive models don’t foresee a competitive title game between those two teams. The Seminoles project as a double-digit favorite2 against Louisville.
As a heads up, next week is the only week of the season where every team is playing a conference opponent.
Is it possible divisions weren’t a competitive problem?
It’s too early to determine that divisions produce a more competitive regular season. We’re comparing 38 games to 850 games. One season to 15 plus seasons.
The removal of divisions might be more of a market correction after bloating the league with too many teams. Now imagine including the teams from California and Texas next season3.
The scheduling with divisions became silly. Consider NC State played Duke in Durham for this first time in 10 years this season.
And when the conference can barely get one team in the college football playoff, you’ve got to try something different.
Once the playoff expands to 12 teams next season, do you think we’ll ever see an ACC team that makes the playoff without making the conference title game?4
Maybe then we’ll go back to divisions.
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This only includes regular season games. The 2020 season was played without divisions and more conference games due to COVID. Plus, it includes games against Notre Dame.
See kfordratings.com - projects Florida State as 11.5 point favorite prior to Saturday’s results.
Still remarkable to imagine Stanford, Cal, and SMU in the league.
My money is on Pitt.