050: Taking stock of the ACC after September
A look at the predictive ratings of the ACC football teams and guessing the conference championship game matchup.
Happy October 3rd.
Louisville is 3-0 for the first time ever in the ACC. Clemson has already lost two league games. And Miami hasn’t even played a conference game yet.
The ACC ditched divisions1, but that doesn’t mean the chase to make the conference championship game is without chaos.
The title game is scheduled for December 2nd in Charlotte. Let’s guess the two teams that make it to that date.
Predictive ratings: SP+ and KFord
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings are a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency. These ratings are intended to be forward-facing.
Here is an example of how you can use the ratings:
Miami is hosting Georgia Tech this week
The Hurricanes SP+ rating is the best in the league at 18.5
The Yellow Jackets rating is -2.9
When adjusting for home field advantage, add 2.5 points to the point spread
SP+ has Miami favored by 23.9 points Saturday (see full predictions here)
18.5 + 2.5 - (-2.9) = 23.9
Kelley Ford develops the KFord Ratings. There are a variety of ratings, including predictive power ratings and odds to make the conference championship game.
The ratings project the final ACC standings and rank each team. In these ratings, Florida State is the ninth best team in the country followed by Clemson at 15 and Miami at 18.
Using the KFord Ratings, the seventh best ACC team is Louisville. The Cardinals have the second best odds to make it the conference championship game at 45 percent.
Wait, what?
Divisions are gone, but shenanigans remain due to unequal schedules.
Six wins feels like the minimum requirement to reach the conference title game. There are five teams with a 30 percent chance or better to win six games according to the KFord Ratings. Clemson still has a 22 percent chance at six wins, plus the Tigers are the second best team in the league according to SP+.
Let’s call it six contenders. And let’s review the remaining schedules of those six contenders - Florida State, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Duke, and Clemson.
Florida State is the team most likely to make it to Charlotte right now. The Seminoles have only two road league games remaining and both games are at inferior opponents. The Seminoles are likely to be favorites in all six of its remaining conference games.
The toughest tests on paper are at home against Duke and Miami. The Seminoles beat Miami 45-3 last season in Coral Gables. It’s hard to see any more than two losses on Florida State’s remaining league schedule.
Florida State's SP+ rating is 16.1
opponent odds_spread
1 at Boston College WON 31-29
2 at Clemson WON 31-24 (OT)
3 Virginia Tech -18.3 (96%)
4 Syracuse -9.9 (82%)
5 Duke -7.3 (79%)
6 at Wake Forest -9.9 (92%)
7 at Pittsburgh -11.4 (91%)
8 Miami -0.1 (72%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
Louisville is going to make people upset. The Cardinals are already 3-0 in league play and its remaining schedule is favorable. No games against Florida State, Clemson, or North Carolina.
Louisville is likely at least a touchdown favorite in three of its final five league games. A home contest at Duke feels like a toss-up and a trip to Miami at the end of the season is where its likely an underdog. Louisville winning seven league games is possible.
Louisville's SP+ rating is 11.3
opponent odds_spread
1 at Georgia Tech WON 39-24
2 Boston College WON 56-28
3 at NC State WON 13-10
4 at Pittsburgh -6.6 (70%)
5 Duke -2.5 (51%)
6 Virginia Tech -14.1 (84%)
7 Virginia -22.3 (91%)
8 at Miami +9.7 (29%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
Miami is flying under the radar. The Hurricanes start league play this Saturday hosting Georgia Tech. Mario Cristobal and the `Canes will try to do something Saturday that they couldn’t do all last season - win a home conference game!
Miami is likely going to be a favorite in at least five of its eight league games. The trips to North Carolina and Florida State are tough, and a home game against Clemson will be tricky. Six wins is attainable.
Miami's SP+ rating is 18.5
opponent odds_spread
1 Georgia Tech -23.9 (90%)
2 at North Carolina -2.4 (51%)
3 Clemson -3.8 (53%)
4 Virginia -29.5 (96%)
5 at NC State -18.5 (77%)
6 at Florida State +0.1 (28%)
7 Louisville -9.7 (71%)
8 at Boston College -25.4 (90%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
North Carolina has a chance. This week, the Tar Heels open a crucial three-game home stretch against Syracuse, Miami, and Virginia. All winnable games at home.
The end of the season is not easy. A home contest against Duke, and road trips to Clemson and NC State. Carolina is likely a favorite in five of its remaining seven league games. If it follows that path, a 6-2 finish could be enough to make it to Charlotte.
North Carolina's SP+ rating is 13.6
opponent odds_spread
1 at Pittsburgh WON 41-24
2 Syracuse -7.4 (62%)
3 Miami +2.4 (49%)
4 Virginia -7.6 (94%)
5 at Georgia Tech -8.2 (80%)
6 Duke -4.8 (58%)
7 at Clemson +6.1 (32%)
8 at NC State -8.6 (72%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
Duke is a problem and Duke has problems. The Blue Devils are 1-0 after beating Clemson in its opener. A near win at home against Notre Dame2 ended with an injury to quarterback Riley Leonard. If Leonard is healthy enough to not miss any time, Duke absolutely can make some noise.
The problem for the Blue Devils is its toughest remaining league games - Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina - are all away from Durham.
Duke's SP+ rating is 11.3
opponent odds_spread
1 Clemson WON 28-7
2 NC State -11.3 (80%)
3 at Florida State +7.3 (21%)
4 at Louisville +2.5 (49%)
5 Wake Forest -10.1 (86%)
6 at North Carolina +4.8 (42%)
7 at Virginia -17.3 (88%)
8 Pittsburgh -11.6 (84%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
Clemson has no margin for error to make it to Charlotte. The Tigers have dropped games to Duke and Florida State already, and it’s path to six wins means it can’t lose another conference game.
Out of its five remaining ACC games, Clemson is almost certain to be the favorites in at least three of those games. Not sure the Tigers can win out, but it’s not impossible given the history and schedule.
Clemson's SP+ rating is 16.1
opponent odds_spread
1 at Duke LOST 28-7
2 Florida State LOST 31-24 (OT)
3 at Syracuse WON 31-14
4 Wake Forest -14.9 (92%)
5 at Miami +3.8 (47%)
6 at NC State -11.1 (80%)
7 Georgia Tech -21.5 (92%)
8 North Carolina -6.1 (68%)
Estimated spread via SP+
Percentage odds via KFord
While those six teams have the best chance to make it to Charlotte, there are eight other teams in this league that will cause pain.
Syracuse is in the middle of its toughest stretch in league play after a loss to Clemson, a trip to North Carolina this week, and a visit to Florida State next week. The rest of the Orange’s schedule is manageable enough to reach five wins.
Virginia Tech just throttled Pittsburgh at home. The Hokies have tough road games at Louisville and at Florida State, but stranger things have happened.
NC State gets Miami, Clemson, and North Carolina at home. The Wolfpack are 4-2 in league games decided by four points or fewer over the last two seasons. State can absolutely play spoiler with those opportunities.
Georgia Tech welcomes North Carolina to Atlanta at the end of this month. UNC is 8-20-1 all-time against Georgia Tech away from home.
Wake Forest plays Florida State at home on October 28 too. The Demon Deacons have won two straight against the Seminoles in Winston-Salem, and three-straight overall.
Boston College nearly beat Florida State in Chestnut Hill. A season-finale against Miami at home could be maximum chaos for the Hurricanes.
Pittsburgh’s point differential is -34 through two league games. The Panthers3 host Louisville next week, and could cause some pain for the Cardinals?
Dating back to last season, Virginia is 1-5 in league games decided by fewer than seven points. It feels like the Cavaliers are due for some good luck.
If you’re only using the snapshot of these predictive ratings, it’s fair to expect Florida State and Louisville to meet in Charlotte.
These predictive ratings are only a snapshot though. There is a ton of football left, and we could get to witness some elaborate tiebreaker rules.
If we’re using vibes, my best guess is a Miami and Florida State rematch in Charlotte. The league finally gets the matchup it wanted just in time for the conference to fall apart4.
Did you know ACC men’s soccer still uses the Coastal and Atlantic divisions? The standings are pure chaos when you add in ties. UNC has only one league win, and it’s tied for third in the Coastal because it has three ties and zero losses.
The Notre Dame regular season win streak has to come to an end this season, right? Clemson in early November feels like a lovely defensive struggle.
I think Pitt is not very good, however, they’re known to be a Death Star of silly upsets.
New ACC members in the latest SP+ ratings: Stanford (-9.6), California (-1.3), and SMU (2.7). These schools add a lot to swimming and diving, but sort of bring the league back down when looking at football.