042: Talkin' bout the Noles
College football has lost its absolute mind over the past week.
The Pac-12 turned into the Pac-4 at the end of last week. How it happened is complicated, hilarious, and sad.
A year after USC and UCLA agreed to join the Big Ten, both Oregon and Washington accepted invites to the league this past Friday. The Big Ten is now 18 teams.
The Big 12 was only 10 teams a year ago and it planned to lose both Texas and Oklahoma. The conference plans to be 16 teams soon.
Why? Because it added four new teams for 2023 - Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston - and four of the Pac-12 members for 2024 - Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.
The SEC has been eerily quiet over the past week. Unless you forgot, the conference soon adds Texas and Oklahoma to arrive at 16 total members.
And now, the ACC is vetting Stanford and California for potential membership. Yes, two schools in California, for membership in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
What are we doing.
Florida State does not want to be in the ACC any longer. That sentence was likely true in 2012, and it’s true today too.
The Seminoles are concerned that the league’s television deal means it won’t be able to stay competitive against the other major conferences. And you know what? The ‘Noles might be right.
The problem is Florida State agreed to the ACC’s Grant of Rights in 2013, and again agreed to extend it another 20 years in 2016. It’s possible all of us, including Florida State, underestimated the Grant of Rights.
It will cost a school potentially half a billion dollars to depart from the league right now. It’s a reason why Florida State is considering private equity and complaining in public.
The complaining rubs people the wrong way because . . .
In the College Football Era, 23 teams have won more games than Florida State
Florida State won 2013 National Championship. The Seminoles made the College Football Playoff in its inaugural year in 2014. The `Noles have won fewer games (56) than Washington State (58) since 2015.
In the College Football Era, 23 teams have won more games than Florida State as shown in the chart below:
The Seminoles lack of dominance hurts the ACC just as much as it hurts Florida State.
Split Zone Duo’s Steven Godfrey put it this way back in February1 when discussing how to make the ACC more profitable and relevant:
I need a playoff caliber Florida State. I need a playoff caliber Miami. I need a 10-win North Carolina or Virginia Tech.
The ACC needs those big-ass Florida schools to be National Title relevant.
Miami has been even more underwhelming than its rival over this time span. The Hurricanes aren’t complaining in public about leaving the ACC.
Clemson has won 41 more games than Florida State since 2014. But again, the Tigers aren’t barking in public about wanting to leave the league either.
# Wins + losses since 2014 season
# for ACC schools and Notre Dame
Rk Team W L
1 Clemson 110 16
2 Notre Dame 85 30
3 Florida State 69 43
4 NC State 69 45
5 Pittsburgh 68 48
6 Miami 66 47
7 Louisville 62 52
8 Virginia Tech 61 53
9 North Carolina 60 55
10 Wake Forest 58 53
11 Duke 55 57
12 Boston College 52 59
13 Georgia Tech 49 60
14 Virginia 48 60
15 Syracuse 43 66Somewhat overlooked is the Seminoles other athletic teams have been more successful than its football program as of late. The women’s soccer team has won three national titles since 2014. The softball team won a title in 2018 too.
None of this should be all that surprising
Realignment has been dumb for a long time.
John Swofford and Dean Jordan reportedly had to “woo” Florida State back in 2012 and 2013 to not leave the league. Florida State thinking about leaving for the Big 12 was part of what started the #goacc movement.
Martin Rickman wrote this 10 years ago, and it feels relevant today:
But Florida State fans are never happy. They're trapped in their Samuel Beckett play of an existence somewhere between those trash cans from Endgame, the urns from Play, or the buried earth of Happy Days. Beckett writes in Endgame there is "nothing funnier than unhappiness," and I think that's honestly why I've been so interested in Florida State for the past year, even more than my alma matter, which is less unhappy and more tragically apathetic.
Florida State craves national attention. When they get it, their expectations rise, and when they don't win a title, their fans are upset. So the national pundits put them a tier below Ohio State, Alabama, Florida, and even Oregon and Texas. Then FSU fans are upset again. The Noles are constantly undergoing an identity crisis that consumes them more than it did Kafka. It's cyclical. It's undeniably existential. And it's incredibly entertaining.
Just know the ACC loves you Florida State, even if you don't think love exists at all.
The hype is real for Florida State entering the 2023 football season. The Seminoles are ranked 8th in the preseason coaches poll released today, and Vegas projects a 10 win season.
In what would be a rare win-win, Florida State competing for a spot in the playoff this season would help the ACC and the ‘Noles.
But the other ACC teams have the potential to do one of the funniest things imaginable too.
You can find the code for this post here. I’m starting to share more Notes on Substack with different shitposts visualizations, so check it out. For example, the 2023 women’s soccer poll by conference and the NET rankings with realignment. As always, please subscribe if you enjoyed this post.
This is a Patreon episode, so it’s behind a paywall. You should subscribe because it’s a sobering listen from February. Split Zone Duo is as plugged in as any outlet, it tells the truth, and even they were dead-wrong about the speed of realignment. It shows the stunning failure of the Pac-12 leadership and how quick all this stuff can change.