036: 🏈 Fun with SP+ historical data
Conference changes over the last three decades and an ode to Dead Letters.
Last week, Bill Connelly ranked the best college football teams across every decade. The full article is available using a ESPN+ subscription and Connelly supplied the historical SP+ rankings too.
Connelly created SP+ rankings as a tempo-and-opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency. The rankings shared during the season are predictive. In this specific exercise, SP+ uses methods based on points scored and allowed.
So, let’s dive into some of the rankings . . .
Conferences over last three decades
The three tables below show the average percentile ranking for teams in the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC1. The average percentile is used as an attempt to make it easier to compare the different schools. The trend column plots the distribution of the percentiles for each decade. Of course, the 2020s is incomplete or in progress2.
The catch is I’ve included past or future members for all conferences in the tables. Yes, you get to see USC and UCLA next to all those Big Ten teams.
It just means more
Alabama’s average percentile of 98.3 is the 2010s is flat out silly.
I wonder if the SEC wishes it was accepting Texas and Oklahoma from the 2000s? It’s alarming to see a ~23 spot drop in average percentile from one decade to the next for Texas.
How about Mississippi State nearly doubling it’s average percentile ranking from the 2000s (45.1 average) to the 2010s (81.8 average).
Vanderbilt has ranked as high as the 89th percentile in 2012 and as low as the ninth percentile in 2020. I would expect 2020 data to be a bit unusual given the pandemic.
Leaders and Legends
It’s something to read reactions3 from USC showing off a #B1G logo on its jersey. The Trojans would still rank fourth in average percentile ranking across the league in the 2010s behind Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
It feels like you can make an argument UCLA is a better recent football fit for the league than Maryland and Nebraska.
Ohio State continues to trend upward decade after decade. The Buckeyes have lost just four games over the past two seasons.
Northwestern has won just four games over the past two seasons. The Wildcats best percentile ranking over this time frame was in 2017 (86.2). Its two worse percentile rankings are from the past two seasons (21.5 in 2021, 19.9 in 2022).
The Magnificent Seven
Pittsburgh remains a great addition for the ACC from a competition standpoint. The Panthers average percentile ranking since 2000 is around 70.
Clemson started the 2010 decade with a loss to South Florida in the Meinke Car Care Bowl. The Tigers continued that decade by playing for the National Championship four times, and winning two of those title games.
NC State and North Carolina have similar profiles. The edge goes to the Wolfpack in median and average ranking since 2000 though, plus the `Pack is 14-9 against the Tar Heels since the 2000 season.
How about the decline of these members?
Virginia Tech’s average percentile ranking has plummeted 40 spots from the 2000s to the first few years in the 2020s.
Georgia Tech’s average percentile ranking was 72.6 in the 2000s. The Yellow Jackets are 50 spots worse in the 2020s (22.0).
Boston College’s best season from a percentile ranking standpoint came in 2001 (85.9), when it was a member of the Big East. The Eagles average percentile ranking has declined decade by decade.
Dead Letters
Split Zone Duo is airing its second season of Dead Letters right now. The series is about what happens when great programs no longer become great. I encourage you to subscribe the podcast for $5 month.
This season of Dead Letters covers Florida A&M, Ole Miss, and Colorado. The SP+ historical data doesn’t include Florida A&M, however, let’s take a look at the Buffaloes and Rebels.
Colorado peaked with a 96.9 ranking in 1989 season. This was a touch better than its 94.9 percentile ranking in the 1990 season when it was voted as co-champion and won a game with five downs. The Buffaloes worst percentile ranking was last season (4.5), so guess it’s prime time now.
From 1957 to 1963, Mississippi’s percentile ranking was no lower than 98. And by 1981, the Rebels had slipped all the way under the 25th percentile ranking. Ole Miss is climbing back up with two rankings near 90 over the past two seasons.
The three leagues all use some variation of blue as its conference brand colors: ACC (#013ca6), Big Ten (#0088ce), and SEC (#004b8d). It’s oddly homogenous.
The data uses the average percentile for each decade. It’s possible the median would be better, however, with only a max of 10 values for each decade it felt like average was good enough.