026: No place like home
Run differentials for baseball teams in ACC play.
North Carolina opens a three-game series against Miami tonight at Boshamer Stadium. The series opener is broadcast on ACC Network at 7 PM. Game two is also at 7 PM on Friday on ESPN2.
ACC baseball is in full swing. 10 of the league’s 14 teams are in the top-50 of the RPI.
Last week, I wrote about the ACC standings and run differentials. This week, we’re visualizing the updated data for run differentials in league play and comparing home and away games. This brings us to the Miami and Carolina series that starts tonight, and you can see the two highlighted below.
Miami ranks 22nd in the RPI despite a near break even record (8-7) in league play. The Hurricanes are 8-1 at home and 0-6 on the road in ACC games.
The -33 run differential away from Alex Rodriguez Park at Mark Light Field is the second-worst in the league. The Hurricanes have scored only 12 runs in six league games. Florida State’s -41 run differential away from home is the league’s worst.
The ‘Canes +38 run differential at home leads the ACC (must be the Jayro milkshakes). This mark is better than the home run differentials of both Virginia (+36) and Wake Forest (+32). The Cavaliers and Demon Deacons are both in the top-5 of the RPI as of today, and the two teams responsible for beating Miami by a combined scored of 45-12 in six league games.
North Carolina has played weaker competition on the road in league play. The Heels have established a +14 run differential away from Boshamer Stadium posting a 5-2 record against Pittsburgh (1 game), Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech.
Carolina is even in run differential at home with a 3-3 record against Virginia and Duke. The Heels hope the Hurricanes poor road play travels over the next three days.
Given the strength of the ACC, both the Heels and Hurrricanes likely need to continue play at around .500 to maintain its healthy RPI rankings. In order to earn a regional host bid, both teams will need more wins and avoid losing three games in a row though.
You can find the code for this slope chart here. Please subscribe below if you find these visualizations useful. I’ll be updating the ACC standings chart every Monday, and sharing via Twitter or Substack Notes.