017: Five consecutive empty possessions
NC State beats North Carolina by 12 points on a Sunday afternoon. State outscored Carolina by 14 points over the last 10 minutes of the game.
Heels led 54-48 with about 10 minutes to go. Over the next two minutes and 14 seconds, Carolina put together five consecutive empty possessions and State scored seven points on its five trips.
The 7-0 run propelled State to score 12 of the game’s next 18 points to make it 67-60 with about five minutes to go.
A six-point lead to a seven-point deficit in five minutes.
And from there, the Wolfpack parachuted its way to 77-69 win in Raleigh.
Shot volume has been a sticky part of Carolina basketball for the last couple decades. Turnovers and rebounds are the knobs that control shot volume.
State played about 961 percent of its possessions turnover free. DJ Burns and crew dominated the paint. The Wolfpack attempted 13 more two-point shots and made 12 more two-point shots than the Heels. A 46 to 26 advantage on points in the paint.
81 percent of Carolina’s possessions ended without a turnover. The Heels made 15 of 40 two-point shots (37.5 percent) and attempted four more three-point shots than State. The 41.1 effective field goal percentage is a smidge above the 40.7 effort from Carolina in the first meeting in Chapel Hill.
Carolina managed just a 15 to 11 edge in second chance points despite rebounding about 57 percent of its missed shots and 75 percent of State’s missed shots.
Carolina made 18 free throws and State attempted 10 free throws. The +8 margin is helpful, but not enough alone to support a win.
So, to recap . . .
Carolina made 10 more free throws on 14 more foul shot attempts
State scored 18 more points on nine more field goal attempts
Fewer shots. Fewer makes.
A recipe for a loss.
NC State leads the conference in turnover rate. The Wolfpack avoid turnovers on 88 percent of its possessions in league play. The 4.3 rate is second best in a single game in the kenpom era (since 2002) for NC State and second fewest by a Carolina opponent in the same era.
Check out the code for the chart. This riffs off ncaahoopR’s gameflow chart function.