172: Wins and losses
There is more than one way to build a tournament résumé, plus a look at the past 75 years of the Carolina-Duke rivalry.
A common trope across college basketball narratives is that wins and losses do not matter. When it comes to advanced metrics, it’s not about if a team won or lost, it’s more about a team’s efficiency extrapolated out to 100 possessions.
Doug Gottlieb, head coach at Green Bay, called Ken Pomeroy’s ratings bullshit this week. Gottlieb’s argument is that the ratings take into account how much a team wins or loses by, and that those numbers lack context.
If anything, Pomeroy’s numbers, like other advanced rating systems deliver more context than just a win and a loss. But this doesn’t mean we should frame these ratings as if wins and losses do not matter.
Wins and losses are not the most important aspect of Bart Torvik’s ratings or Pomeroy’s ratings because these are all predictive ratings. Bad results can happen with a good process and good results can come from a bad process.
The entire point of playing the game is to win though, right?
Wins and losses are front and center on the homepage of almost every rating system. The team with the best efficiency in March or in a given stretch of games doesn’t get a trophy.
Ask NC State and BYU if wins and losses matter.
The Wolfpack has built its entire NCAA tournament résumé over its past 10 games with an 8-2 record in ACC play. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 5-4 in Big 12 play and relying on their strong non-conference record to buoy their tourney résumé.
The Wolfpack posted a 9-4 record in non-conference play this season. Using a résumé metric like Wins-Above-Bubble, NC State put together -0.22 WAB in non-conference play.
NC State has earned +2.50 WAB from its eight wins in league play, thanks in part to a 6-0 road record. Bracket Matrix slots NC State at around an eight seed overall in the NCAA Tournament as of today.
So far, BYU has earned only +0.53 WAB in Big 12 play. The Cougars’ five wins in conference play are less than the WAB earned in non-conference wins alone against Wisconsin (+0.58), Villanova (+0.63), and Clemson (+0.67).
BYU’s tournament résumé is solid and Bracket Matrix projects the Cougars to earn a 5 seed as of today, but that résumé is propped up with a lot of wins outside its own league right now.
There are plenty of ways to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and almost all of those ways involve winning actual games. And if you want to win a title, you do have to win at least six consecutive games.
So, let’s stop with the ‘wins and losses do not matter’ narrative. Wins and losses are not the best predictor of future success, but yes, wins and losses do actually matter.
Blue Streaks
If we stick on the theme of wins and losses, it’s sort of the entire basis of bragging rights within a rivalry. Did you lose to your rival or beat your rival?
Carolina and Duke meet for the first time this season on Saturday. The Blue Devils have won three straight games, all coming last season.
A win Saturday would extend Duke’s streak to four games, and it would mark the fourth such winning streak of at least four games over the past 25 years.
As a comparison, Carolina has registered three win streaks of exactly three games over the past 25 years. You would have to go back to the mid-1990s to find a Carolina win streak of four or more games, as the Heels won seven straight in the rivalry from 1993 to 1996.
Another common trope is that this rivalry always delivers. The beauty in that statement is you can use your imagination on what the rivalry delivers.
One thing I do know is the rivalry always delivers wins and losses, and those things do actually matter.
That’s it for this week, and thanks for reading this far. As a reminder, follow WAB throughout the season over at wabwatch.com
A recommendation this week is the newsletter,Sports! with Rodger Sherman. The Winter Olympics are this month, and Rodger is going to be covering it every single day. You can subscribe here to follow along: sports.beehiiv.com/subscribe
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