119: Changes

How expanded conferences shape the college football playoff conversation, plus tracking the trajectories of players with longer careers.

A few different visualizations that center around how college sports continues to change . . .

CFP Rankings and Expansion

The latest college football rankings were released Tuesday, November 19. The made-for-TV event has become a circular argument.

Friction remains around arguing over schedule strength and record strength. You can find the latest rankings and an updated Sankey diagram by conference here.

Are the majority of these arguments because of the lack of games between these ranked teams?

The chart below shows a dotted line for any non-conference games between the 25 ranked teams as of today. In addition, instead of trying to plot every intra-conference game, the total league games between the ranked conference teams is also listed.

Now, how often do the teams in the same league play each other this season?

Not often. Here is a table showing intra-conference games between the ranked 25 teams across the four power leagues.

The five Big Ten teams play a total of five games against each other. Five actual games out of a possible 10 games or if each team played the other four teams. Ohio State plays three of the four possible opponents, and only misses 25th ranked Illinois.

The SEC has eight teams in the top-25. There are 12 total games between those eight teams out of a possible 28 games or if every team played the other seven teams. Texas, ranked third, plays only one of the other seven teams in its own league.

The Big 12 features four teams in the latest top-25 rankings and those four teams play a grand total of one game against each other. One game out of a possible six games. Colorado doesn’t play BYU, Arizona State, or Iowa State despite being in the same league. Iowa State also avoids Colorado, BYU, and Arizona State on its schedule.

The ACC features three teams and these three teams do not play each other at all this regular season. SMU and Miami are most likely to meet in the conference championship game.

Can you imagine if the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles didn’t play each other in the regular season and competed in the same division?

That's what these expanded conferences have become. For example, it took the Big Ten 48 hours to realize that Oregon clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game because of all the tiebreakers.

Imagine if you had to explain college football playoff to someone who had no fundamental understanding of the politics of the sport.

Well, they rank the top-25 teams and those rankings use wins over ranked opponents. But those ranked opponents are from a different ranking system?

And there are eight teams in this one league, but that league’s highest ranked team doesn’t actually play six of the other teams ranked in the same league.

Oh, and the teams ranked eighth and 12th, actually receive a first round bye because of conference championship games.

I get it, we need a TV show. This is America after all.

But wouldn’t it be better if an email was sent out Sunday morning that updated the rankings for all 134 FBS teams instead?

Speaking of complex college sports discussions that get oversimplified, let’s talk about player progressions.

Player progressions

As the careers of collegiate players get longer, I think we sort of misunderstand player trajectories or success. We assume a player’s success is linear.

But success isn’t linear.

There are peaks and valleys. Injuries and coaching changes. And even in today’s world, blurry contract negotiations.

This season, RJ Davis has made only five of his 25 three-point attempts. Dating back to March 2nd of last season, Davis has made 28 of his last 90 three-point attempts, good for only 31.1 percent.

A fun comparison for Davis is current assistant coach Marcus Paige. Paige played in 141 career games or the exact same number that Davis has played so far into his fifth collegiate season.

Davis is likely to pass Paige in career three-point makes and attempts later this season. Paige’s peak in his career as a three-point shooter did not come in his final collegiate season, but over his second and third seasons. He was named second team All-America after his sophomore season in 2014.

This chart shows the rolling five-game three-point percentage over the course of both player’s careers. Note the peaks and the valleys.

These progressions are not unusual. Take a look at a few NBA player’s three-point progression using this DARKO tool (try Klay Thompson).

Paige had a six-game stretch during his senior season where he made only five of 36 three-point attempts. Later that season, Paige also made six-of-nine three-point attempts in a 101-86 win over Indiana in the Sweet 16.

My assumption is Davis’ three-point shooting improves as his fifth season continues over the weekend. Perhaps playing four games in six days helps shift the averages?

But if Davis’ peak as a shooter isn’t this season, that’s also normal. The numbers from last season are outstanding and tough to sustain.

Plus, there are tons of other ways to measure a player’s impact outside of three-point shooting too. He is playing with new players and different skillsets, and Davis can affect the game without making 40 percent from three.

In a career that goes beyond 150 plus games, we shouldn’t expect the best performance to always happen in the final 20 games.

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Thanks for reading this far. Check out the code for the silly charts in the post and other posts over here. And you can find more college football data in this tiny app built by evidence. Subscribe if you so choose 🤟