101: Wandering win totals
Another look at preseason win totals, college football playoff odds, and hanging a banner for the toughest non-conference schedule in the country.
The 2024 college football season brings a consolidation of power and a larger playoff format. As conference realignment fan fiction and lawsuits continue, we’re only one month away from actual college football games.
Here is a look at the range of preseason win totals across the four power leagues: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. The teams with win totals of 9.5 and higher, and teams with projected win totals of 4.5 and below, are highlighted in the chart.
The ACC has a clunky middle class
17 full-time members in the league sport a median win total of 7.5
Florida State, Miami, and Clemson are the contenders to make the college football playoff all with a 9.5 win total
Four teams - Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia, Stanford - are projected to win fewer than 5 games
This means there are 10(!) teams in the middle between 5.5 and 8.5 projected wins
Part-time member Notre Dame is not shown on chart, however, the Irish have a preseason win total of 10.5
The Big 12 is a Vegas buffet
16 teams with a median win total of 7.5 or similar to the ACC
Houston, BYU, and Arizona State are all on the low end of the projections with win totals of 4.5 and below
Kansas State and Utah are the expected favorites of the Big 12 with preseason win totals of 9.5
The Big 10 is actually made up of 18 teams
Worst median win total (6.5) across the four power leagues, but also the largest collection of teams (18) in what we call a conference these days
7 teams - UCLA, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State - all have preseason win totals under 6
Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are the contenders with 9.5 or better win totals while defending National Champion Michigan checks in at 8.5 projected wins
The SEC is where it actually might mean more
16 teams with a median preseason win total of 8 or highest amongst the power leagues
Sankey’s squad has 6 teams with projected win totals of 9.5 and above, which is more than the ACC and Big 12 combined (5 teams)
Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all expected to win fewer than 5 games, while Vanderbilt’s 2.5 win total is the lowest amongst all teams in a power league
Expect the SEC to represent about one third of the 12-team college football playoff
And speaking of the college football playoff, here is the full list of college football playoff odds from FanDuel as of today.
Three teams (Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Michigan) are not listed on the previous chart, but all still have good odds to make the playoff.
Hang a banner
The ACC quite literally put up a banner touting the toughest non-conference schedule in the country. League commissioner Jim Phillips stated “ACC football has the toughest non-conference schedule in the country. 27 games against power four opponents, including Notre Dame.”
A curious proclamation and one that I’m not even sure is true.
First, the inclusion of Notre Dame in the statement is doing a lot of work. The Irish are contractually obligated to play five ACC opponents each season. I suppose that four of the five ACC opponents have to play the Irish in South Bend does make the schedule tougher for the full-time league members.
Second, take away those five games, and it would leave 22 games against power four opponents. The problem is there are only 21 games against teams in the other power leagues - SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12.
There are 18 unique non-conference opponents from those three power leagues. Three of those opponents are featured twice (Florida, Georgia, and TCU). 15 teams, plus three opponents twice, and Bob’s your uncle, that’s 21 games.
# ACC opponents in power four leagues
opponent conference total
1 Florida SEC 2
2 Georgia SEC 2
3 TCU Big 12 2
4 Auburn SEC 1
5 BYU Big 12 1
6 Cincinnati Big 12 1
7 Kentucky SEC 1
8 Maryland Big Ten 1
9 Michigan State Big Ten 1
10 Minnesota Big Ten 1
11 Missouri SEC 1
12 Northwestern Big Ten 1
13 Ole Miss SEC 1
14 Rutgers Big Ten 1
15 South Carolina SEC 1
16 Tennessee SEC 1
17 Vanderbilt SEC 1
18 West Virginia Big 12 1The missing opponent is likely Oregon State from the Pac-12 Pac-2. New league member, Cal, plays its old conference foe in a non-conference game this season.
It’s completely possible my math or research is wrong too. A more accurate statement is 21 games against teams for the three other power leagues, plus five games against Notre Dame.
But honestly who gives a shit about the toughest non-conference schedule in the country? It’s an odd thing to put on a banner.
The Mid-American conference plays 23 games against the four power leagues, plus Notre Dame. That’s a tough schedule too, but the MAC has better messaging than the ACC. I mean look at this domain name: getsomemaction.com - but does it matter which one has the tougher non-conference schedule?
Shouldn’t the strength of the other ~70% of the schedule matter more?
I do understand why the ACC is trotting it out there though. Last season, Florida State went a perfect 13-0 with a pair of wins over two SEC teams and failed to make the four-team college football playoff.
The narratives around the ACC are sub-optimal. It doesn’t have the apparatus that the SEC has in place to constantly tell you about the strength of its league. It doesn’t have a Finebaum to hold its water.
It does have a bloated league that spans three time zones, member schools that are suing the league, and the ability to hang odd banners.
It’s the season for politicking, and the ACC is trying, but I’m not sure it can #AccomplishGreatness.
Thanks for reading this far. You can find the code for the two charts in this post here. And please subscribe if you haven’t done so already.
Oh, and enjoy the Olympics.