090: The college team records of top ten NFL quarterback draft picks since 2004
Quarterbacks from Tobacco Road all finished their collegiate careers without an impressive team record.
38 quarterbacks have beens selected in the top ten of the NFL Draft since 2004.
These 38 quarterbacks led college teams that won on average around 10 games in their draft season or the quarterback’s final season of eligibility.
11 of those 38 quarterbacks were part of a college team that won fewer than 70 percent of its games in their draft season.
Three of those quarterbacks played on Tobacco Road.
Tobacco Road Quarterbacks all finished 8-5 overall
Philip Rivers was drafted fourth overall in 2004. NC State finished Rivers’ final collegiate season with an 8-5 overall record. The 2003 Wolfpack finished 4-4 in ACC play with wins over NC State and Duke, and a loss to Wake Forest. The Wolfpack lost 44-38 in three overtimes to Ohio State and finished the season by beating Kansas by 30 points in the Tangerine Bowl.
North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky was selected second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. The 2016 Carolina team went 8-5 overall and 5-3 in ACC play with losses to NC State and Duke. UNC completed the season with a 25-23 loss to Stanford, sans Christian McCaffrey, in the 2016 Sun Bowl.
Daniel Jones was selected sixth overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. Jones final season at Duke ended with a 29-point win over Temple in the Independence Bowl. The Blue Devils finished 8-5 overall, but just 3-5 in ACC play. A win over North Carolina was included in the three wins.
Does it matter how a quarterback’s college team finished?
It depends on who is asking the question.
If you’re a General Manager or draft expert, then I don’t think the college team’s record in the quarterback’s draft year is all that predictive of the professional success of that quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes quarterbacked a 5-7 Texas Tech team in 2016. Mahomes is the best player at that position in the league. Insert your favorite causation and correlation joke here.
Now, if you’re a fan of that quarterback’s college team, then I suspect you’re likely disappointed if your college team doesn’t win 10 or more games with a top ten pro prospect at quarterback. Fans are fanatical and irrational. Expectations are tricky.
It’s astounding that NC State, Duke, and North Carolina all have had more success on the gridiron in seasons when it didn’t have a quarterback selected in the top ten of the NFL Draft.
That’s no different this past season either.
The 2024 NFL Draft is tomorrow. North Carolina’s Drake Maye is likely to be drafted within the top ten picks.
And North Carolina finished the 2023 season with an 8-5 record.
You can find the code for the table in this post here. The data is from drafthistory.com and sports-reference.com, please let me know if you spot any errors.
Don’t be surprised if I’m not publishing as frequently over the next few weeks. I’m trying to take some time to think through what to build next. I’m kicking around a few ideas for some offseason projects, and hoping to share some code from previous projects too. Stay tuned.