088: College basketball teams have more experience than ever
A look at the Final Four participants through the lens of experience.
Hofstra beat Rutgers 88-86 in overtime in the first round of the 2023 NIT. Cam Spencer made six of 11 three-point attempts en route to scoring 22 points for Rutgers. Aaron Estrada scored 13 points for Hofstra.
Both Spencer and Estrada will play in the Final Four on Saturday.
Spencer, a starter for UConn, has made 44 percent of his three-point shots this season. He started his career at Loyola Maryland before playing last season at Rutgers and joining the wagon that is Connecticut this season.
Estrada has started all 36 games for Alabama this year. The Woodbury, New Jersey native is playing for his fourth school in his collegiate career. He started at Saint Peter’s during the 2019-20 season, played in nine games at Oregon the following season, and became a key contributor at Hofstra during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons.
Spencer and Estrada aren’t the only examples of players that have navigated a global pandemic and the transfer portal. The Final Four provides several examples from all four participants.
Consider that the players you're likely to see on the court this weekend at the Final Four have had previous stops in their collegiate careers: East Carolina, Texas A&M, Ohio, Saint Peter’s, Oregon, Hofstra, North Dakota State, Wofford, Cal State Fullerton, West Virginia, Southern Illinois, Winthrop, Illinois State, Arizona State, Missouri, Stanford, Clemson, Butler, and Virginia.
If that list of schools feels obnoxious, it’s because it is.
There is talent everywhere.
The freedom to transfer schools without penalty combined with the extra COVID year of eligibility has translated into the most experienced or oldest Final Four over the past decade using Ken Pomeroy’s experience metric.
Pomeroy has tracked experience and other storytelling stats since 2008. The four teams in the 2024 Final Four all rank in the top 15 in experience across the all Final Four participants since 2008 or out of 64 other teams.
Here is a list of those top-15 teams and the season in which the team earned a trip to the Final Four:
# Top 15 Final Four Participants
# in Experience since 2008
season team experience
1 2024 N.C. State 3.05
2 2023 San Diego St. 2.96
3 2023 Miami FL 2.90
4 2009 Connecticut 2.55
5 2021 Baylor 2.55
6 2016 Oklahoma 2.53
7 2014 Connecticut 2.49
8 2024 Alabama 2.48
9 2011 VCU 2.44
10 2024 Purdue 2.44
11 2022 Villanova 2.42
12 2024 Connecticut 2.42
13 2017 Gonzaga 2.37
14 2009 North Carolina 2.35
15 2010 Duke 2.34NC State is the most experienced team to reach the Final Four since Pomeroy began tracking this stat in 2008.
The Wolfpack rank 14th across all Division-I teams this season with an average experience of 3.05 years on its roster. All seven players in the NC State rotation have logged minutes for at least one other school in their careers.
The way coaches build a roster in this era is different. Schools like Kentucky and Duke that often rely on talented freshman might change their strategy given recent results. Perhaps, the NBA never needed the G League Ignite developmental league because those players just played at these two blue bloods.
Of course, it’s hard to predict if this level of experience will continue for seasons to come. The landscape of college athletics is undergoing significant changes.
My assumption is once the extra COVID year of eligibility expires, realignment settles, and the NBA tweaks its rules, the experience numbers will stabilize. Until then, coaches can flip rosters and dramatically change the course of its programs in a pinch.
There are tons of interesting storylines in the Final Four. Connecticut’s dominance, Alabama’s analytical style of play, NC State’s dream run, and Purdue’s revenge.
I think the most interesting aspect of the Final Four is the construction of the rosters. It’s the most experience we’ve seen at this stage in quite some time.
Tough neighborhood
NC State’s run is remarkable.
The Wolfpack reaching the Final Four for the first time since 1983 is breaking the brains of North Carolina and Duke fans. I’ve seen both fanbases argue which team has turned in the more disappointing season over the past couple years, and I just feel like this:
The Wolfpack have lost double-digit games every season under Kevin Keatts. This season’s 14 losses are the second most in Keatts’ tenure. The Wolfpack lost 21 games in the 2021-22 season.
It doesn’t matter and it won’t matter.
Keatts successfully ran in place until this team broke through and reeled off nine straight wins to win an ACC title and make a Final Four.
I’m not sure if this success for State changes the dynamic of college basketball on Tobacco Road. However, it would be silly to think that it can't change it.
Maybe it already has changed it too.
Thanks for reading this far, and following along this college hoops season. I plan to slow down on the newsletter over the next several weeks.
I may check in with some college baseball data or explore some offseason projects, but likely will try to catch my breath and get organized. Feel free to subscribe below to stay tuned. As always, you can find the code for this chart or previous charts here.