074: Duke, UNC, and the tempo
Plus ACC women's hoops has no problem with the NET.
The last time North Carolina played Duke, Carolina turned in a slow and inefficient performance. The Blue Devils swept Carolina last season winning both games by a combined 11 points.
The two games last season were played at Duke’s pace. 66 possessions in Durham in a contest dominated by Dereck Lively and 65 possessions in Chapel Hill in a slog fest behind Kyle Filipowski.
Both teams scored under 1 point per possession in the two games last season. In the previous 35 meetings or since the 2007-08 season, at least one team has scored better than 1 point per possession in every game.
The results were undesirable for people that prefer light blue and the games were aesthetically unpleasant for everyone.
Duke has played slower under Jon Scheyer. Specifically, 44 of the 56 games (~79 percent) under Scheyer have been played under 70 possessions.
Mike Krzyzewski coached long enough that the Blue Devils played all kinds of different styles. As a comparison to Scheyer, Duke played ~57 percent of its games (302 of 534 games) below 70 possessions from the 2007-08 to 2021-22 seasons under Coach K.
Hubert Davis has been on the sideline as a head coach for 37 more games than Scheyer. 47 percent or 44 of 93 games under Davis have been played below 70 possessions.
If we use the same comparison, 33 percent, or 169 of 509 games from the 2007-08 to 2020-21 seasons, were played under 70 possessions with Roy Williams as the Carolina head coach.
Davis and the Heels play faster so far this season. Only six of the 21 games in the 2023-24 season have been played under 70 possessions.
How does this stack up to previous seasons?
Carolina is 16-21 overall against Duke since the 2007-08 season or the last 37 meetings. UNC is 4-11 when the game is played under 70 possessions. The Heels are 12-10 in games played at 70 or more possessions.
Take those numbers with a grain of salt, because there are lots of other more important factors. If we stick with the tempo theme, the table below shows the result and tempo for those 37 games:
# Tempo of UNC and Duke games since 2008 season
year result tempo score
1: 2013 L 61 Duke 69, North Carolina 53
2: 2010 L 63 Duke 64, North Carolina 54
3: 2010 L 64 Duke 82, North Carolina 50
4: 2018 W 65 North Carolina 82, Duke 78
5: 2023 L 65 Duke 62, North Carolina 57
6: 2009 W 66 North Carolina 79, Duke 71
7: 2023 L 66 Duke 63, North Carolina 57
8: 2014 L 68 Duke 93, North Carolina 81
9: 2015 L 68 Duke 84, North Carolina 77
10: 2017 L 68 Duke 86, North Carolina 78
11: 2011 L 69 Duke 75, North Carolina 58
12: 2014 W 69 North Carolina 74, Duke 66
13: 2016 L 69 Duke 74, North Carolina 73
14: 2022 W 69 North Carolina 81, Duke 77
15: 2022 L 69 Duke 87, North Carolina 67
16: 2011 W 70 North Carolina 81, Duke 67
17: 2012 W 70 North Carolina 88, Duke 70
18: 2013 L 70 Duke 73, North Carolina 68
19: 2018 L 70 Duke 74, North Carolina 64
20: 2020 L 71 Duke 89, North Carolina 76
21: 2012 L 72 Duke 85, North Carolina 84
22: 2016 W 72 North Carolina 76, Duke 72
23: 2017 W 72 North Carolina 90, Duke 83
24: 2018 W 72 North Carolina 74, Duke 69
25: 2019 L 73 Duke 74, North Carolina 73
26: 2008 W 74 North Carolina 76, Duke 68
27: 2015 L 74 Duke 92, North Carolina 90
28: 2017 L 74 Duke 93, North Carolina 83
29: 2022 W 75 North Carolina 94, Duke 81
30: 2021 W 76 North Carolina 91, Duke 87
31: 2011 L 77 Duke 79, North Carolina 73
32: 2019 W 77 North Carolina 79, Duke 70
33: 2009 W 80 North Carolina 101, Duke 87
34: 2021 W 80 North Carolina 91, Duke 73
35: 2008 L 83 Duke 89, North Carolina 78
36: 2020 L 83 Duke 98, North Carolina 96
37: 2019 W 87 North Carolina 88, Duke 72What does this all mean?
Good question. I don’t quite know.
My assumption is Duke prefers a slower pace of play under Scheyer. I do think the Blue Devils are more equipped to play faster this season.
But consider only three of the 56 games in the Scheyer era were played above 75 possessions. Duke is 1-2 in those three games (losses to Arizona, Arkansas, and a win over Queens).
My next assumption is Carolina is working its way back to a more familiar style of play, which is faster. UNC’s average possession length on offense this season is 15.7 seconds, good for 28th in the country. When the Heels get into the secondary or primary break, good things happen more often.
I’m certain the number of possessions in Saturday’s game won’t be the only way to explain the result. But I’m hoping for a faster, more efficient, and exciting tempo than both games last season.
ACC doesn’t have a problem with the NET in women’s hoops
Nine of the ACC’s women’s basketball teams are in the top-50 of the NET as of yesterday. Last season, the ACC led all conferences with eight teams earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina travels to Raleigh tonight for a massive game against NC State. If you’re looking for an advanced ranking system for women’s hoops, check out this app from Ben Wieland: https://bbwieland.shinyapps.io/rankings-website/
🤟Thanks for reading this far, and as always please subscribe for future posts. I’m working on improvements to the CBB Conference Index app and surfacing more résumé metrics like WAB, so stay tuned. 🤟