044: š Game time is not the same as real time
Will the latest college football rule changes mean shorter games?
After a long offseason filled with conference realignment fantasies, weāre almost to toe meeting leather. Actual football games are scheduled for August 26.
There are three new rule changes this fall highlighted by the clock no longer stopping after a first down except with less than two minutes remaining in the 2nd and 4th quarters.
The rule changes are expected to speed up games.
Iām not so sure that will happen though.
Why?
Alberto Riveron, the ACC Supervisor of Officials, said so in an interview with Ovies & Giglio about three weeks ago.
People think of it to expedite the game. Well, itās not.
We have to remember that when the rules are changed, the main reason is player safety. And two is equity in competition. So, this rule is for player safety.
With this new timing rule in effect, through the course of the game, it will bring the play count down anywhere from seven to nine plays. You go over a year, and thatās close to 100 plays.
The ruleās intention is player safety. Itās not written to reduce the duration of football games.
There is no change to the length of halftime, commercial breaks, or the clock in the final two minutes of either half. Television runs the sport and longer games seem to be beneficial for the networks.
It absolutely should not take 4 hours to play 60 minutes. And one counter-intuitive aspect is that a teamās pace of play can dictate how long it takes to complete a game.
Time of possession isnāt that important of a stat to āwinā on its own and dictate the outcome of a game. Itās what a team does when it has the ball that matters more.
If we use the teamās average time of possession, and that teamās average number of offensive plays, we can determine the average plays per minute of that team. This gives us the sense of the pace of the team.
If we plot that average plays per minute against a teamās average game duration from last season . . .
We find that teams that play faster have games that take longer.
When teams run more plays, the games tend to last longer. For each extra play that a team runs in a given minute of game time, the length of the game can extend by about 15 minutes in real time.
Texas Tech averaged 2.87 plays per minute last season and its average game duration was 3 hours and 41 minutes. Compare this to Air Forceās 1.88 plays per minute and 3 hours and four minute duration.
Of course, there is some noise and variance too. Missouri ran under the median amount of plays per minute with 2.05, but the Tigers average game duration was above the median length at 3 hours and 33 minutes.
But arenāt teams going to run fewer plays because of the rule change?
Bill Connelly at ESPN estimates that the rule change will result in games that will be about 5% shorter. This means fewer plays, fewer drives, and fewer points.
But does it mean shorter games?
Vegas is expecting fewer points too
The point totals of week zero and week one games are skewing lower.
VSIN Live interviewed Dr. Bob Stoll, and Stoll projects 4.4 fewer plays from scrimmage due to the rule change. Stoll shares that the average total of week zero and one games last season was 54.8 points compared to 52.6 points this season.
The expectation is fewer possessions and fewer points. Take the under?
But does it mean shorter games?
Iām skeptical this rule change will significantly decrease the duration of games.
There are other factors that influence how long it takes to complete a college football game. The weather, the types of plays being run, penalties, and the overall competition are other factors to consider. Oh yeah, replay reviews too!
The clock management strategies will be fascinating to watch.
You can likely make an argument that this rule change benefits defenses and limits offenses. After all, playing less defense is usually a good thing. If a game has fewer possessions, it might be more competitive because itās harder for one team to pull away.
On another hand, teams might change how they play with leads and treat the size of their leads. A three-point lead or seven-point lead can feel like 10 or more when the offense is taking the air out of the ball and running clock. You might see drives that last six plus minutes of game time more often.
Teams will still try to play fast and play slow, but Iām still skeptical that the games will end in three hours.
The last two minutes of each half is not changing and that is often where games get really long. Remember North Carolinaās 63-61 win over Appalachian State last season? The last two minutes of game time took about 29 minutes of real time.
If youāre curious where Connelly gets the āextra five seconds of clock runningā in those estimations, I tried rewatching some games from a year ago.
See this first down from North Carolina at Wake Forest, and count the seconds that the clocks stops at the 12:03 mark - itās about five seconds and feels like a good example of what the change might bring:
The data in the post in fetched from stats.ncaa.org. It uses the averages, which feels like it could present some quirks. Anyhow, you can see the code to fetch the data and make the plot here.
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